Global solar outlook lifted 12% for 2021-2026

London — Global solar power growth is set to accelerate over the next six years, taking its share of global generation to 5% from 3%, according to a bi-annual report by S&P Global Platts Analytics.

Platts Analytics has upgraded its forecast for 2021-2026 by 12%, or roughly 16 GW/year from to its November report.

China, the US and new emerging markets will see the biggest increases.

"Growth remains well below what we think is needed to achieve the steeper decarbonization pledges," Platts Analytics head of global power planning Bruno Brunetti said April 26.

Platts Analytics estimates that the solar capacity added in 2020 will generate about 130 TWh/y, only 13% of the assumed global power demand growth for 2021.

Total installed global solar capacity will reach the 1 TW milestone in early 2023, it said.

Rising prices for solar PV modules may impact returns on projects, a concern flagged in the November report, it said.

"Soaring polysilicon prices and freight rates underpin solar PV modules prices, reversing the large declines in prior years," Brunetti said.

China's solar growth rebounded sharply with just under 50 GW added 2020 after falling to 30 GW in 2019.

Platts Analytics lifted its 2021-2026 outlook to 50 GW/year, amounting to almost 1 GW new solar to be added each week on average.

Europe was forecast to install some 25 GW/year through 2026, a slight upgrade on November's forecast.

For North America, 15.4 GW/year new additions were assumed for the 2021-2026 period, up 2.4 GW versus the previous report.

Brazil has seen strong growth of distributed solar, but utility-scale projects in the unregulated power market are also growing significantly there.

India, Japan and the Middle East also saw outlooks lifted.

In new emerging markets, some 46 GW of utility-scale solar PV projects were under construction or planned, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence World Electric Power Plant database.