US POWER TRACKER: NYISO power prices down in March on lower demand, gas prices

New York Independent System Operator wholesale power prices declined between about 35%-40% on month in March and declined between around 42%-46% on year with power demand down about 6% on month and natural gas prices down around 33% on month.

The NYISO Zone J New York City on-peak day-head power price averaged $36.49/MWh in March, down about 41% from the March 2022 average price of $62.14/MWh and down around 35% on month, according to ISO data. The on-peak real-time power price at the hub averaged $34.40/MWh in March, down about 46% on year and down around 16% on month.

The Zone G Hudson Valley on-peak day-ahead power price averaged $36.13/MWh in March, which was roughly 42% lower on year and 34% lower on month.

The NYISO Zone A Western New York on-peak day-ahead power price averaged $19.40/MWh in March, an approximately 46% decline on year and a roughly 39% decline on month. The day-ahead off-peak power price at the hub was slightly higher, averaging $20.31/MWh in March.

The Transco Zone 6 spot gas price declined by around 50% on year in March to average $2.25/MMBtu, which represented a roughly 33% decline on month, according to Platts price assessments. The maximum daily average spot gas price in March was $2.72/MMBtu and the minimum was $1.70/MMBtu.

Power demand declined by 6% on month in March with peakload averaging 18,190 MW compared with 19,286 MW in February, according to ISO data. Average peakload was relatively unchanged on year, declining by just 0.5% in March.

Power and gas prices softened as the market began entering shoulder season with temperatures warming entering spring. The average March temperature across NYISO territory was 40.3 degrees Fahrenheit, slightly above the historical average of 39.9 degrees F, according to CustomWeather data.

The warmer weather led to fewer heating degree days which averaged 24.1 in March compared with 27.7 in February.

Power generation fuel mix

Mostly used as a backup or peaking fuel, oil was not used much as a power generation fuel in March, accounting for just 0.1% of the fuel mix after accounting for 0.2% in February when a cold snap led to increased oil-fired generation, according to ISO data.

Dual fuel units which primarily use gas and store oil as a backup fuel accounted for 25.2% of the March fuel mix, down from 26.3% in February and 27% in March 2022.

Gas-fired power accounted for 19.5% of the fuel mix in March, down from 20.7% in February and up slightly from 19.0% in March 2022.

Nuclear power accounted for 23% of the March generation fuel mix, virtually unchanged on month and down from 27.4% in March 2022.

Hydropower accounted for 25.2% of the NYISO fuel mix in March, up from 22.9% in February and down from 27.4% in March 2022.

Wind power supplied 5.2% of the generation mix in March, down from 5.5% in February and 5.9% in March 2022, and other renewables accounted for 1.8% of the March generation mix, up from 1.4% in February and down from 1.9% in March 2022.

New York has a legislatively mandated target of 70% renewables by 2030 and 100% emissions-free power by 2040.

Forward power, gas prices

The NYISO Zone G on-peak forward power price for April averaged $37.08/MWh during March trading, down about 31% on year and 3% on month, according to Platts M2MS data. Forward power at the hub for May averaged $35.61/MWh, also down 31% on year and down 2.63% on month. And forward power prices for June averaged $41.79/MWh, down about 23% on year and up 2.09% on month.

NYISO Zone J forward power prices for April averaged $39.86/MWh in March trading, down about 29% on year and down about 4% on month. Forward power for May averaged $38.20/MWh, down about 31% on year and up 0.28% on month, and forward power for June average $45.00/MWh, down about 22% on year and up 0.03% on month.

NYISO Zone A forward power prices for April averaged $22.91/MWh in March trading, down around 37% on year and down about 7% on month. The forward package for May averaged $23.82/MWh, down nearly 48% on year and about 7% on month. And the forward power price for June averaged $30.10/MWh, down about 38% on year and up 3.4% on month.

Transco Zone 6 forward gas prices for April averaged $2.25/MMBtu during March trading, down about 47% on year and down about 4% on month. Forward gas prices for May averaged $2.13/MMBtu, down almost 49% on year and down about 5% on month, and forward gas for June averaged $2.32/MMBtu, about 45% lower on year and down around 5% on month.