Balkans hydro output dips in Weeks 11-12, drier week forecast, snow cover up

Budapest — * Output at three-month low

* Dry weather forecast

* Spot prices top Eur60/MWh

Hydropower production in the Balkans fell minimally in Weeks 11-12 as an initial rise was reversed thanks to a dip in Danube output, hydrological reports and Entso-e data showed on March 30.

Hydro output is forecast to be similar or slightly lower in early April, contributing to relative stability in spot prices near or below the Eur60/MWh mark.

Combined hydropower production in Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia was 1.12 TWh in Week 12, the lowest in three months. It fell by 7.4% from Week 11, reversing a 6.8% rise in the previous week. Hydro production still increased by 39% in a year-on-year comparison in Week 12.

Higher run-of-river output along the Danube, especially in Romania, drove the initial increase, even as reservoir output fell in most countries. In Week 12, falling Danube output in Romania and Serbia amid unchanged reservoir production led the downward trend, with lower reservoir output in Bulgaria and Bosnia also contributing to the overall drop.

Romanian reservoirs fell by 0.9% week on week to 1.69 TWh, or 57.7% of capacity at the end of Week 12, the lowest in almost two years. Reserves were also down 8% in a year-on-year comparison.

Croatian reserves dropped by another 5.1% week on week to 1.03 TWh in Week 12; still 43% higher from a year earlier. Serbian reserves shrank by just 0.2% to 502 GWh in Week 11 (the latest period with data), the lowest so far this year. This is still up 16% from the same week of 2020.

Amid lower hydro output and higher-than-usual power demand, spot prices in the region crept higher, especially in Week 12. Weekday day-ahead prices added about Eur3-4/MWh on average in Week 12, ending just above Eur61/MWh in both Hungary and Romania.

Futures prices charted a very similar course, adding about Eur3/MWh overall with the bulk of the increase occurring in Week 12. Month-ahead base closed at Eur53.5/MWh in Hungary and minimally below that in Romania; whereas quarter-ahead bases ended Week 12 at Eur53.8/MWh in Hungary and Eur53.3/MWh in Romania.

Run-of-river output along the Danube is forecast to be lower this week in Serbia and Romania; with water levels comfortably below levels typical for this time of year. At the same time, run-of-river production is expected to slightly increase in Slovakia and Bulgaria, the latter mostly because of snowmelt.

Rain across the Central European catchment area of the Danube is set to be modest this week, at less than 5 millimeters in most regions and up to 10-15 mm in a handful of mountain areas in Romania, according to data from Hungary's National Hydrology Service.

Total snow cover across the Danube catchment area, while slightly below the long-term average, is more than 20% above last year's levels meaning that snowmelt is likely to contribute to higher river levels in the weeks ahead.