German nuclear run-time extension review sees limited benefits, high costs

Germany's review of planned nuclear closures and possible run-time extensions sees limited benefits and high costs, the two ministers responsible for energy and reactor safety said March 8.

The review, launched Feb. 27 by energy minister Robert Habeck, has looked at three scenarios: stretching operation of Germany's three remaining reactors into Q1 2023; continued operation of existing reactors for three to eight years; and a return to service of the three reactors that were closed at the end of 2021.

"The risk-benefit analysis of the results even in the light of the current gas supply crisis means a run-time extension of the three remaining reactors is not recommended," Habeck and environment minister Steffi Lemke (both Green Party) said in a statement with the document published ahead of an emergency meeting of state energy and economy ministers.

The limited benefits of continued operation were outweighed by high economic costs, constitutional issues and nuclear safety issues, they said.

Sourcing new nuclear fuel for the remaining reactors would take 12-15 months, according to the review.

Operating reactors in stretch mode to preserve fuel this summer for next winter would offset attempts to restock gas stores this summer, it added.

Extension of run-times for three to eight years, seen as necessary to make the move viable economically, implied a number of legal challenges as well as investments in the safety of the assets, the ministries said in the review.

Returning closed reactors to service, meanwhile, would pose further constitutional challenges and legal hurdles, it said.

While the technical safety status of German reactors in general was high, the review noted a possible risk to German power supply and the continuous cooling of reactor cores in the light of the current threat to nuclear plants in Ukraine.

The ministers said alternative arrangements were preferable noting plans for national gas and coal reserves, diversifying energy imports away from Russia and the accelerated (if longer term) expansion of renewables.

Germany's state of Bavaria is reviewing continued operation of two nuclear reactors at Isar 2 and Gundremmingen 2 after first minister Markus Soeder called March 3 for a temporary extension of three to five years.

The decision to extend operations ultimately falls to the federal government and would require a change of law.

In 2021, six German reactors with a combined capacity of 8 GW generated 65 TWh, covering 12% of German power demand.

German power prices have soared with April baseload settling March 7 at a record Eur482.86/MWh, EEX data show. Year-ahead baseload power traded at Eur184/MWh around midday on March 8.

Europe's gas benchmark TTF front-month was last assessed at a record Eur208/MWh on March 7, S&P Global Commodity Insight data show.