Swedish electrification prompts first forecast increase in power demand for years

Sweden's power consumption is on the rise after years of stasis due to accelerating electrification, transmission system operator Svenska kraftnat said in a five-year outlook report Feb. 1.

Under a central case demand would increase over 10% from 142 TWh to 157 TWh between 2022-26, driven by data centers and electrification of industrial processes.

"If we, together with other stakeholders, succeed in shortening lead times for building power lines and stations, electricity consumption will increase by another 5 TWh in 2026," said Mattias Jonsson, the TSO's manager for electricity market analysis.

Svenska kraftnat has sought government approval for a SEK 8.4 billion ($900 million) investment package to help meet growing power demand, it said.

In total, the TSO plans investments of SEK 100 billion to 2031.

Despite forecast growth in domestic demand Sweden would continue to export around 30 TWh/yr, Svenska kraftnat said, made possible by the country's booming wind power sector.

Sweden was on course to add 2.30 GW of wind capacity in 2021, taking total capacity to 12.30 GW installed, according to sector association Svenskvindenergi.

Wind growth had been at record high levels, the association said, with 2021 additions equating to 8 TWh/year of generation.

To 2024, accumulated installed wind power was likely to exceed 17 GW "with normal year production reaching almost 50 TWh, making wind power the second largest source of power in Sweden," it said.

ANNUAL WIND PRODUCTION FORECAST (TWh)

Source: Svenska kraftnat

Karlhamnsverket contract

Power adequacy was another matter, the TSO said.

Its reserve contract with Uniper's 662-MW oil-fired Karlhamnsverket power station expires in late winter 2025, after which the TSO doubted it could meet loss of load probability requirements.

This was partly because opportunities to import during periods of tight margins "may be limited", Jonsson said.

In the market, Svenska kraftnat said prices in southern Sweden (zones SE3 and SE4) were seen reducing from the high levels seen in late 2021, while average annual prices in the north (SE1 and SE2) would increase due to greater industrial demand for power.

SWEDEN: INSTALLED CAPACITY FORECAST (MW)

Source: Svenska kraftnat, Andritz