German onshore wind growth forecast to reach 5 GW in 2025 on record permits

German onshore wind additions are forecast to rise to a range of 4.8-5.3 GW in 2025, the highest since a record 2017 -- after net additions flatlined in 2024, sector association BWE said Jan. 15.

Germany installed 635 new onshore wind turbines with a combined 3.3 GW capacity, while 706 MW of capacity was retired, according to its annual report.

Record volumes of newly permitted projects -- doubling year over year to 14 GW -- and nearly 11 GW of projects awarded support contracts through four tenders in 2024 are set to boost growth over coming years.

BWE President Baerbel Heidebroek urged the next government to maintain the high level of momentum in the coming legislative period of 2025-29.

"There must be no break-off point now. With the record results for 2024 [for permits and tender awards], the expansion targets of the EEG [green energy law] are within reach," Heidebroek said.

The possibility of simultaneously connecting wind, solar and storage to individual grid connection points must come as soon as possible, BWE said, referring to proposed changes to the EnWG law.

Germany currently has some 63.4 GW onshore wind capacity, which generated 111 TWh in 2024, slightly below the record set in 2023.

Onshore wind turbines are still Germany's single biggest source of electricity, surpassing natural gas, solar and lignite coal.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed German onshore wind capture prices averaged Eur64.38/MWh in 2024, down around 20% from 2023 levels, while the average capture rate was pegged around 82%.

Repowering boost

Around a third, or 1.2 GW, of new turbines came from so-called repowering projects, also little changed from 2023, BWE added.

BWE said previously that capacity at existing wind farm sites could be quadrupled by repowering with some 17 GW of first-generation turbines to see their 20-year EEG contracts end by 2028.

The lobby group also called for a "new electricity market design" after the outgoing coalition "failed to succeed in further strengthen the system-setting role of renewables in conjunction with flexibility, for example from storage and batteries."

While the EEG still enables smaller project developers to obtain loans under the sliding market premium mechanism, any reforms to this system must be carried out carefully to avoid uncertainties that could lead to a collapse in the onshore wind expansion, BWE said in a statement.

"Even with the promised relief for repowering, the outgoing federal government has unfortunately not lived up to the claim it set itself in the coalition agreement. The expectations of the incoming federal government are correspondingly high," Heidebroek said.

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights forecast around 12 GW new onshore wind capacity additions in Germany this year and next, with total installed onshore capacity set to reach 98 GW by end-2029, significantly shy of current targets under the EEG 2030.

German onshore wind in 2024