Saudi energy minister sees net zero as scenario that ‘can never happen’

Net zero carbon scenarios are impossible to achieve, with security of energy supplies key to solving the challenges of sustainability and affordability, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Dec. 3.

The minister said at the Saudi Green Initiative Forum in Riyadh that the world is currently going through a "reality check" on net zero and energy security. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter, has repeatedly pushed back on predictions that fossil fuel demand will peak, including the International Energy Agency's forecast that this will occur by the end of the decade.

"I was alone in June 2021 when I talked about net zero scenario as being a La La Land scenario... It will take us another couple of years, three years, to see people reconfiguring thinking between a reality check and the imagined thing that never happened and can never happen," he said.

Saudi Arabia itself has a 2060 net zero target, while Saudi Aramco aims to achieve net-zero Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 2050.

Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said that policy makers need to be realistic.

"I think the unrealistic views you know, when you look at the transition and policy makers, they would always like to achieve a speedy transition, they put [out] certain mandates," Nasser said. "But mandates or policies will not take care of the economics."

Aramco has crude production capacity of 12 million b/d. In January the Saudi energy ministry ordered the company to cancel a 1 million b/d capacity expansion plan. Due to its commitments under the OPEC+ crude production agreement it is currently producing around 9 million b/d.

Nasser said that oil demand will grow in 2025, driven by Asian markets and liquids to chemicals projects, with jet fuel also picking up.

He added that transport demand for oil will continue to grow, with only 60 million electric vehicles out of a global fleet of 1.6 billion.

"The expected growth in the number of vehicles added is about 90 million, 17 million will be electric, so there is still growth in internal combustion engines, so we are seeing a continuous increase in demand in the years ahead," Nasser said.

Energy security

Prince Abdulaziz also addressed energy security risks at the conference, saying that without stable supplies, the world cannot achieve energy affordability and sustainability.

"The one thing that [we] should not make elective is energy security, energy security, energy security, without which you are in for a bad time," he said.

Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have led to an increased focus on energy security since 2022. The wars have led to widescale attacks on energy infrastructure and significant changes in supply routes. While the wars rage on, threats of further supply disruptions persist.

The minister added that Saudi Arabia played a key role in negotiations at the recent UN Climate Change Conference in Baku, and will continue this involvement in climate talks.