European mobility sinks to six-week low as new lockdown measures bite

London — Economic mobility indicators in Europe's largest economies have fallen to six-week lows, according to Google data, after a growing wave of second-wave lockdowns hit activity in Germany, the region's largest energy consumer.

Based on activity at workplaces, retail and recreational sites, and transport hubs, average mobility indexes in Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Spain was 20.1% below pre-crisis levels in the week to Oct. 13, according to the latest Google data, marginally lower than the previous week but the lowest regional average since Sep. 3.

Often used as a proxy for energy demand, Google measures mobility on the number of visits and length of stay at locations such as offices based on mobile phone location data.

The data shows that economic mobility fell in all countries except the UK compared with the previous week. In Germany, where economic activity has recovered far more swiftly than its regional neighbors, workplace mobility fell to 24% below pre-crisis levels on Oct. 12, the data shows, the lowest since early September.

Like all its European peers, Germany has introduced a raft of new rules to lower coronavirus infection rates which have hit fresh daily record levels in recent days. The moves have hit the country's mobility which had almost recovered fully to pre-crisis levels by mid-September.

"In Europe...more and more restrictions are being reinstated by the day to contain the booming second wave of COVID-19 infections," consultants Rystad Energy said in a note "This is sure to land a blow on demand, which was previously projected healthier for this time of the year."

Traffic congestion falls

The slide in European activity levels as governments reimpose restrictions on public life is also supported by more recent driving activity data from TomTom.

Road traffic congestion in Europe's biggest five capital cities fell to an average of 17% below year-earlier levels in the week to Oct. 18, the lowest since the first week of September, according to TomTom data.

The biggest weekly fall in driving activity was in Berlin, the data shows, with road congestion sliding to 3% below a year earlier compared with 21% above the week before. Driving in Madrid, which has been the hardest hit of all its European peers, also fell sharply to 50% below year-earlier levels.

S&P Global Platts Analytics estimates global oil demand will contract by 8.3 million b/d in 2020 with Europe accounting for around 1.5 million b/d of the total.