Refined Products, Crude Oil

October 18, 2024

OIL FUTURES: Crude prices firm as China's Q3 GDP rises 4.6%

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

HIGHLIGHTS

China data shows gains in GDP, crude throughput

Death of Hamas leader a major development in Middle East conflict

Crude oil futures were higher in mid-afternoon Asian trade Oct. 18, after China's official economic data showed positive signals with gross domestic product up 4.6% in the third quarter and up 4.8% in the first nine months of the year.

Meanwhile, supply risk concerns stayed elevated in the Middle East after the killing of Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar.

At 2:20 pm Singapore time (0620 GMT), the ICE December Brent futures contract was up 43 cents/b (0.58%) from the previous close at $74.88/b, while the NYMEX November light sweet crude contract rose 47 cents/b (0.47%) at $71.14/b.

"Oil rebounded on Thursday after a bigger-than-expected drop in US crude inventories. However, geopolitical tensions showed little signs of abating, with Israel saying Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed by the Israel Defense Forces," UOB research analysts said in a note Oct. 18.

Geopolitical risk in the Middle East has caused major disruptions in shipping logistics, which has changed trade flow dynamics over the past year.

Another bullish signal for oil was a rebound in China's crude throughput to a five-month high of 14.35 million b/d in September, National Bureau of Statistics data showed Oct. 18, as refiners raised utilizations amid the peak demand season.

Oil product consumption picks up in September and October -- the peak demand season in China -- as fishing, harvesting, and constructing activities progress, while holiday travels gain pace amid the mid-autumn festival and the Golden Week.

As expected, the country lifted crude throughput 2% from the 21-month low of 13.97 million b/d in August to the highest since 14.36 million b/d in April, NBS data showed.

Dubai swaps

Dubai crude swaps and intermonth spreads were higher in mid-afternoon Asian trading Oct. 18 from the previous close.

The December Dubai swap was pegged at $72.89/b at 2:20 pm Singapore time (0620 GMT), up 35 cents/b (0.48%) from the previous Asian market close.

The November-December Dubai swap intermonth spread was pegged at 46 cents/b, unchanged over the same period, and the December-January intermonth spread was pegged at 35 cents/b, down 1 cent/b.

The December Brent-Dubai exchange of futures for swaps was pegged at $1.99/b, up 8 cents/b.


Editor: