CRUDE MOC: Dubai cash/futures spread rangebound as market awaits fresh cues

Singapore — The spread between benchmark cash Dubai and Dubai futures was rangebound on Oct. 12 as market participants await for fresh cues including the conclusion of Qatar's Al-Shaheen crude tender later in the week.

The Dubai crude cash/futures (M1/M3) spread -- a key indicator of spot market sentiment for sour crude in Asia -- was assessed at a discount of 79 cents/b at the 4:30 pm (0830 GMT) Singapore close on Oct. 12, just 3 cents/b up from minus 82 cents/b assessed on Oct. 9, S&P Global Platts data showed.

Platts cash Oman, meanwhile, was assessed at minus 41 cents/b against Dubai futures on Oct. 12, up 8 cents/b from Oct. 9 and also the highest since Sept. 30, the data showed.

Sentiment was mixed for Middle East crude market with market participants expecting medium grades to trade lower month on month while lighter crude oil grades were seen as supportive.

"[Light crude are higher] as long as light ends are supported [but] I think they should come off a bit from recent highs," said a Singapore-based crude oil trader.

Gasoline margins climbed for the third consecutive month in October-to-date to the highest since February 2020 -- the month before which the World Health Organization announced COVID-19 as a pandemic, and several countries imposed travel and movement restrictions.

Second-month 92 RON gasoline swap crack versus Dubai averaged at $4.12/b in October-to-date, the highest since February 2020, Platts data showed.

The conclusion of Qatar Petroleum for the Sale of Petroleum Products, or QPSPP, Al-Shaheen crude tender on Oct. 14 could also provide fresh cues on Asian refiners' appetite for December-loading barrels, market participants said.

QPSPP is offering three cargoes of 500,000 barrels each of Al-Shaheen crude, for loading over Dec. 2-3, Dec. 11-12 and Dec. 29-30, in its monthly tender that will close on Oct. 14 with same day validity.

"Dubai structure [has been] lower [earlier] this month because some November-loading Al-Shaheen were struggling to find homes. [For December-loading cycle,] market has yet to trade yet, we will have to take a look and see what's happening this week," said a North Asian crude trader.

The Dubai M1/M3 spread averaged at minus 82 cents/b for October-to-date, versus minus 53 cents/b for the whole of September, Platts data showed.