Crude oil rally extends as markets eye tightened supply outlooks

Crude oil futures settled higher Oct. 5 as supply outlooks tightened following the OPEC+ group's decision to stick to its planned November production increase.

NYMEX November WTI settled $1.31 higher at $78.93/b and ICE December Brent climbed $1.30 to $82.56/b.

The oil complex continued to find support Oct. 5 after OPEC and its allies agreed the day prior to raise their collective output 400,000 b/d in November, as planned. Many market participants had assumed a bigger output increase was forthcoming due to the ongoing supply tightness and the expectation that additional demand for oil could be as great as 1 million b/d as some power plants switch to oil instead of natural gas, which has recently reached record high prices.

Ahead of the Oct. 4 OPEC+ meeting, S&P Global Platts Analytics had forecast an 800,000 b/d quota increase for November, and the group's caution signals tighter markets than previously assumed, analysts Paul Sheldon and Ashutosh Singh wrote in a note.

NYMEX November RBOB settled up 4.94 cents at $2.3579/gal and November ULSD climbed 5.70 cents to $2.4936/gal.

The rally in oil prices was undaunted by a stronger dollar. The ICE Dollar Index pushed to 93.992 in afternoon trading, up from an Oct. 4 close of 93.776.

A continued surge in global natural gas prices has added further support to oil futures, analysts said. Gas prices globally have hit record highs in recent weeks, with the S&P Global Platts benchmark JKM spot Asian LNG price reaching $34.99/MMBtu and the TTF month-ahead price hitting $32.06/MMBtu Oct. 4.

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said Oct. 4 that surging power prices and natural gas shortages could foster gas-to-oil switching, and that results in Saudi Arabia's domestic crude climbing 500,000 b/d this winter.

Global spot gas prices are expected to remain high through the first quarter of 2022 before easing following the end of the winter season, the International Energy Agency said Oct. 5.

"Crude prices bought a one-way ticket higher as a global energy crisis provided an unexpected surge in demand that is swinging the oil market further into deficit," OANDA senior market analyst Ed Moya said in a note.