US aims to regain climate credibility at COP26 after White House whiplash: Rapidan

Regaining credibility to influence climate policy among allies and trading partners is the top US priority going into the UN COP26 climate summit in November, Rapidan Energy Group said Sept. 16.

The Democrats' $3.5 trillion federal spending plan and the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package — both of which contain a slew of clean energy initiatives — will be key to the Biden administration reestablishing climate leadership, said Glenn Schwartz, Rapidan's energy policy director, during a client presentation.

"The history of US participation in international climate talks is really one of whiplash," Schwartz said. "Other countries are wary that really any commitment the US makes that isn't backed by law or treaty is one that could easily vanish depending on the results of the next election."

Global leaders will meet Nov. 1-12 for the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) with the goal of cementing 2030 emissions targets that put major economies on the path to net-zero emissions by 2050 in order to contain temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

White House whiplash

US presidents' willingness to engage in talks about climate change has alternated hot and cold each administration, going back to former President Bill Clinton's support for the Kyoto Protocol in 1997.

The Biden administration will need to overcome a closely divided US Congress to cement his own climate proposals into law, a challenge that will only increase as the November 2022 midterm elections approach.

"It's encouraging to hear that the dialogue is back on, and the desire to take action is certainly there," said Chris Midgley, global director of analytics for S&P Global Platts.

"But we already know that there is always the competing challenge between economic growth and dealing and tackling with this climate emergency," he said during a Sept. 10 interview. "The reality is that it's going to be a tightrope between those two," he continued. "We want to address it, we want to have an energy transition, but we don't want to let go of the economic model of perpetual growth."

Climate policy priorities

If the Biden administration does manage to regain climate credibility in Glasgow, Rapidan expects it to aim to lead allies on methane reductions, learn from the EU's efforts to include climate risks in financial regulations and put the brakes on carbon border adjustment mechanisms.

"How is the US going to encourage other countries to tighten their climate commitments if the rest of the world knows that we could be likely to walk back our own commitments in roughly four to eight years, which is really not long enough of a time horizon for investment or policy when we're discussing carbon reduction goals out to 2030, or even in some cases 2050," Schwartz added.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said that the proposals in the budget and infrastructure bills would slash US greenhouse gas emissions by 45% by 2030, compared with 2005 levels -- nearly hitting Biden's target of 50% reductions by 2030.

Rapidan gives the Democrats' spending bill 60% odds of passing.

"Democrats are really divided, and they have no margin for error in the Senate or the House," Schwartz said. "The US delegation is betting big on this bill because they know without it, they really only have the regulations they bring on their backs with them. And regulations can be easily undone by a future administration."