US Labor Day travel seen subdued as summer ends on a quiet note: AAA

NewYork — Travel over the long US Labor Day weekend is expected to be very different than in previous years, as the coronavirus pandemic continues to negatively impact plans for the weekend, which traditionally signals the end of summer across the nation.

Rather than millions of Americans flying, driving or taking buses or trains to holiday destinations, many will be hunkered down at home or staying close to home.

"This is a year without precedent due to restrictions to slow the spread of the coronavirus," said Robert Sinclair, Jr., manager of media relations for AAA Northeast.

Because of the widespread impact of the coronavirus, AAA did not issue its usual national travel forecast for Labor Day.

"With so much of the data economic based, and so many unemployed, they [the national organization] decided not to do them," Sinclair said in an email Sept. 3.

However, in the Northeast, the AAA issued a regional travel forecast and "multiple metrics show the depths of travel decline," said Sinclair.

Across the river to the Jersey side

Much like May's Memorial Day weekend which kicked off the summer holidays, Labor Day driving will be the "overwhelming mode of travel for the holiday weekend," Sinclair said.

Even with slight uptick in gasoline prices due to Hurricane Laura, which shut some US Gulf Coast refineries, gasoline prices remain well below last year's levels.

According to Platts assessments, 87 CBOB in New York Harbor is averaging $1.2775/gal so far for the week ending Sept. 4, compared to the $1.6627/gal for the same period last year.

Even with lower gasoline prices, travel to popular summer destinations such as the New Jersey shore has declined, as indicated by a fall-off in tolls on the Garden State Parkway, which serves the beach communities along the New Jersey coastline.

In the month of July, the [Garden State Parkway] is down 15%, from 36.7 million tolls paid to 31.4 million, and the NJ Turnpike fell 25%, from 23.8 million tolls paid to 17.8 million, according to the AAA statement.

Staying regional

AAA anticipates quarantine restrictions in most of the nation will complicate plans, as many states require 14-day quarantines for those entering.from certain states.

But those in the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions have the advantage of living in a region with fewer restrictions, given the concerted efforts by states to lock down their borders.

"Those in the tri-state region can help themselves by visiting destinations in the Northeast," Sinclair said.

While driving will dominate, air travel is slowly increasing, depending on the airport.

TSA data shows Newark enplanements (passenger boarding) were 70% lower last week compared to a year ago. LaGuardia Airport is 78% lower during the same period.

Across the country, US commercial flights within the country have rebounded to 17,493 flights per day, or 68% of pre-pandemic levels, according to data compiled S&P Global Platts Analytics.

However, because many countries and regions – including the EU -- have banned US travelers from visiting, flights to international destinations are at 45% of pre-pandemic levels, or about 2,476 flights per day, Platts Analytics shows.

Cruising is completely absent this year with worries of the coronavirus spreading in the close confines of a ship, AAA said.