Asia crude oil: Key market indicators for Aug 30-Sep 3

Crude oil futures ticked higher in mid-morning Asia trade Aug. 30, even as spot trading activity is expected to mellow in the week of Aug. 30-Sept. 3 as the market shifts its focus to the trading of November-loading cargoes, while traders eye the upcoming OPEC+ meeting for fresh supply cues.

ICE October Brent crude futures stood at $73.03/b at 0300 GMT Aug. 30, up 87 cents/b from the 0830 GMT Asia close on Aug. 27.

Middle East crude

** Spot market activity for October-loading barrels likely to remain dormant with focus shifting to trading of next month's cycle.

** Market participants await issuance of Saudi Aramco's October official selling prices with a cut of around 30-40 cents/b, especially for medium and heavy sour crudes, given weaker demand cues.

** Thailand's IRPC was heard to have bought a 500,000-barrel cargo of Abu Dhabi's October-loading Das Blend crude via tender at a premium of around $2.10/b to Platts front month Dubai crude assessments.

** MRPL and Indian Oil Corp. also issued tenders seeking crude from various regions for delivery in October and November, respectively. The outcome of the tenders are awaited.

** Dubai cash-futures, or M1-M3, averaged $2.08/b in the week ended Aug. 27, against $2.12/b in the week ended Aug. 20.

** Intermonth spreads were higher during mid-morning trade Aug. 30 with October-November pegged at 76 cents/b, up 3 cents/b from the Asia close on Aug. 27.

** October Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps was pegged at $3.53/b mid-morning Aug. 30, up 3 cents/b from the Asia close Aug. 27.

Asia-Pacific crude

** Market participants seek clarity as to Indonesian Pertamina's condensate tender results for October arrival barrels and movement of Australia's remaining October-loading North West Shelf cargoes.

** Trading of November-loading Far East Russian grades commences this week.

** Traders on the look out for spot trades of Malaysia's Miri and Kikeh crude, following trading activity for Kimanis and Labuan grades.

** Tender results of Vietnam's PV Oil's October-loading Light Bach Ho expected.

** Traders will monitor tender activity for Sudan/South Sudan's October-loading Dar Blend amid rangebound low sulfur fuel oil cracks.

** Trading activity for Australia's heavy sweet crude, including Vincent, Pyrenees and Van Gogh, remain in focus after a Vincent crude cargo was heard done at largely stable premiums.

DELIVERED CRUDE

** Sentiment for US' delivered WTI Midland crude remained dull after Taiwan's CPC tender results and a wider month on month Brent-WTI spread.

** Chinese demand for December-arrival cargoes of Brazilian Tupi crude could remain stable to higher following pockets of demand seen from Chinese refineries.

CRUDE FUTURES

** Oil investors this week will be closely watching the OPEC+ alliance meeting set to be held on Sept. 1. Some analysts expect it to hold off raising supply in the wake of the recent resurgence in COVID-19 cases worldwide. OPEC+ currently plans to increase crude output by 400,000 b/d per month until late 2022.

** The demand outlook for oil remains uncertain. While China has been successful in containing the COVID-19 outbreak, other countries around the world, including the US and some in Southeast Asia, have struggled to bring the virus under control.

** Crude prices saw some support from supply disruptions in the US Gulf of Mexico, where up to 96% of crude oil output, or 1.74 million b/d, has been suspended due to Hurricane Ida, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.

** In the week ended Aug. 27, the international crude oil benchmarks were up sharply, their biggest weekly gain in more than two years. The October contract for ICE Brent futures rose 11.54% on the week to settle at $72.70/b, while the October contract for NYMEX light sweet crude was up 10.62% at $68.74/b.