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Research & Insights
29 Aug 2023 | 15:53 UTC
By Thomas Washington and Simone Burgin
Highlights
Global SAF consumption to displace 24% of jet fuel by 2050: S&P Global
BP to start renewable hydrogen electrolyzer project at Lingen refinery
BP will trial carinata plant oil as a new feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel during a seven-day trial in September at its Lingen refinery, Germany, amid an intensifying scramble for limited feedstocks.
The site became the first in Germany in February 2022 to manufacture SAF from used cooking oil, the company said in a statement Aug. 26.
SAF currently commands a considerable premium over conventional jet fuel.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Northwest European SAF at $1,858.61/mt Aug. 25, an $838.86/mt premium to Jet CIF NWE cargoes.
Availability of feedstocks remains a sticking point in SAF's uptake, as other transportation areas, chiefly road use and shipping, look to biofuels to meet their own environmental targets and as producers increasingly try to avoid crop-based sources that could otherwise be used for food.
Global SAF consumption is expected to reach 2.1 million b/d by 2050, displacing almost 24% of worldwide jet fuel demand, analysts at S&P Global said in their August 2023 SAF Market Outlook.
Europe will be the main driver of SAF consumption growth reaching almost 700,000 b/d by 2050, over 45% of total share of aviation fuels. North America and Asia are expected to increase to 644,000 b/d and 623,000 b/d, respectively, the analysts said.
The European Union passed the ReFuelEU aviation initiative in April, which requires fuel suppliers to blend SAF in increasing amounts, from 2% of overall fuel supplies by 2025 up to 70% by 2050. In 2021, SAF accounted for 0.01% of aviation fuel demand in Europe, according to S&P Global data.
BP's 100-MW renewable hydrogen electrolyzer project could start operations at the Lingen refinery in early 2026, the company said in the same statement.