Little production in storm's path left for shut-ins by US Gulf oil, gas companies: BSEE

Houston — US Gulf of Mexico production numbers released Aug 25 by the federal Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement show that producers have little output in the region along the predicted path of strengthening Hurricane Laura that has not been shut-in as the storm races toward the coast.

As of midday Aug. 25, US Gulf upstream operators had shut-in about 1.559 million b/d of oil from platforms in the region, or about 84% of the region's crude production, BSEE said in its daily update.

Domestic operators had also shut-in 1.652 Bcf/d of gas or nearly 61% of the region's natural gas output, BSEE said.

The figures compare with 82% of oil and nearly 57% of gas production that were shut-in as of Aug. 24, BSEE figures showed.

Operators evacuate 18 more platforms

Also, a total of roughly 299 platforms, or nearly 47% of those in the region, had been evacuated as of Aug. 25, an increase of 18 day on day.

The update reflects 45 companies' reports to the federal agency Aug. 25, compared with 37 the day before.

Majors were the first to announce output shut-ins. Shell, BP and Chevron shuttered all or most of their US Gulf production.

Chevron also said its Chevron Pipe Line Co. unit has secured the Empire and Fourchon terminals and shut its Gulf of Mexico pipeline systems. And BP said it has evacuated its Houma Operations Learning Center in Louisiana.

Shell, which has shut-in all but one of its nine operated production platforms in the US Gulf of Mexico as Laura continued to race towards the northwest Gulf coastline, said Aug. 25 it continued to mull if a similar action is needed on its sole remaining online hub.

The Perdido Hub, Shell 's westernmost deepwater development in the US Gulf and the world's deepest production spar in 8,000 feet of water, appears to be west of Laura's projected path through the US Gulf.

By midday Aug. 25, the storm's predicted landfall remained near the Texas-Louisiana border, slightly west of where it was 12 hours earlier, maps from the National Hurricane Center show. It is currently a Category 1 storm but could strengthen into a Category 2 system Aug. 26 as it nears the Gulf Coast.

Extent of western track still uncertain

But about 36 hours before its scheduled landfall late Aug. 26 or early Aug. 27, Laura's trajectory – and specifically, how far west it could move – remains uncertain.

"We continue to carefully monitor Laura's potential impacts to our ... production asset, Perdido, to determine if a safe shut-in of the facility will be necessary," Shell said in an updated statement Aug. 25.

The NHC currently predicts Laura, still a Category 1 storm, will continue to move in a northwest arc late Aug. 25, strengthen into a Category 2 storm late Aug. 26 with wind speeds of more than 110 mph, and then head north toward the Gulf Coast.

Currently, the NHC has landfall along the Texas-Louisiana border. But just how far west Laura will travel before making that northern turn is critical, since it could move landfall closer to Houston.

If the northerly movement is sooner, the storm likely will take a more eastern path into Louisiana; if later, it may head closer to Houston, sited 100 miles west of the border.

The question for Shell as meteorologists continued to model Laura's track Aug. 25 was how far west, and potentially nearer Perdido, it may wander.

The US Gulf currently produces about 1.85 million b/d of oil and about 2.7 Bcf/d of gas, according to BSEE.

The agency will provide further daily updates on US Gulf production shut-ins as needed.