ADNOC allocates full September term supplies to most Asian buyers: sources

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., or ADNOC, has allocated full term volumes to most buyers in China, India and Japan for September-loading crude, according to market participants surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights in the week beginning July 4.

ADNOC was not immediately available for a comment.

"Think all full allocations for buyers in China, India, Japan," said a China-based crude oil trader.

"We are getting whatever we are asking," said a crude oil buyer.

With higher Middle East production levels and rising official selling prices for term supplies, buyers could pivot toward crude availability in the spot market as well.

"There's more supply in the market, but at the end of last month crude oil cash differentials have been quite volatile," said the buyer.

At the end of the June 30 meeting, OPEC+ reaffirmed plans for a nominal 648,000 b/d production rise in August as widely expected.

Murban exports by ADNOC are expected to rise to 1.407 million b/d in July and then gradually increase further to around 1.5 million b/d in January 2023, according to an ADNOC report.

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ADNOC has set the August official selling price for its flagship Murban crude oil at $117.53/b, up $7.85/b from $109.68/b for the July OSP.

For the other ADNOC grades, Umm Lulu was set at a premium of 15 cents/b to Murban OSP, while Das Blend and Upper Zakum were set at discounts of 60 cents/b and $3.20/b to Murban OSP, respectively.

Focus now turns to the term allocations by regional kingpin Saudi Aramco though official selling prices for August-loading crude are also awaited, sources said.

Given the hike in the Dubai sour crude complex in June, Aramco is expected to hike official selling prices of its crude oil for August by around $2.50-$3/b, S&P Global reported earlier.

Platts Dubai cash-futures spread, a key element in OSP calculations, averaged $7.64/b in June, up from an average of $5.17/b in May, data showed.

"I think Saudi Aramco OSPs will be set high this time. Chinese demand is slowly recovering," said a China-based crude oil trader.