NYMEX RBOB hits three-year high after surprise US gasoline draw

NYMEX RBOB futures climbed 2% to their highest front-month settle since May 2018 on the heels of an unexpected draw in US gasoline stocks.

NYMEX July RBOB settled up 4.26 cents at $2.2669/gal -- the highest since May 22, 2018 -- while July ULSD climbed 84 points to $2.1594/gal.

Total US gasoline stocks fell 2.93 million barrels in the week ended June 18 to 240.05 million barrels, US Energy Information administration data showed June 23, leaving inventories around 0.7% behind the five-year average, in from a surplus of 0.4% seen during the week prior.

Most market watchers had expected US gasoline stocks to have climbed last week amid an uptick in refinery utilization.

American Petroleum Institute data released late June 22 showed a 956,000-barrel build in gasoline stocks in the week ended June 18, while analysts surveyed by S&P Global Platts on June 21 saw stocks moving 1.3 million-barrels higher over the same period.

But total US refinery net crude demand unexpectedly slipped 230,000 b/d to 16.11 million b/d as utilization rates eased to 92.2% of total capacity, in from 92.6% seen the week prior.

Instead, the gasoline draw comes as total product supplied for gasoline, EIA's proxy for demand, climbed nearly 1% to a four-week-high 9.44 million b/d, testing highs last seen in February 2020 prior to the first wave of pandemic lockdowns.

The ICE New York Harbor RBOB crack versus Brent rallied to $20.02/b in afternoon trading, up from $18.85/b on June 22 and on pace for the highest close since June 10.

NYMEX August WTI settled 23 cents higher at $73.08/band ICE August Brent climbed 38 cents to settle at $75.19/b.

Total US crude stocks saw their largest weekly draw since late April, falling 7.61 million barrels to 459.06 barrels, EIA said, leaving them nearly 6% behind the five-year average. But the draw was largely in line with market expectations, muting price reaction.

API data showed a 7.2 million-barrel draw in US crude stocks in the week ended June 18, and the Platts survey pointed to a 6.3 million-barrel draw over the same period.

Crude prices had been higher overnight, but the bullish EIA reported prompted profit-taking, analysts said.

"Energy traders locked in profits after the EIA crude oil inventory report confirmed the bullish outlook for robust demand and anchored US production," OANDA senior market analyst Ed Moya said in a note. "The energy market is tightening and that is good news that has mostly been priced in. Crude demand will easily outpace whatever supply returns in the summer."