US strikes Iran's Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear sites: Trump

The US bombed three of Iran's nuclear sites June 21, following through on threats to keep the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon, US President Donald Trump said.

"We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan," Trump said in a post on his Truth Social media platform. "All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home."

The bombing could send oil prices higher when the futures markets open late June 22, said S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts James Bambino and Rick Joswick.

"The US bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites/facilities late June 21 is BULLISH for near-term oil prices, especially at market open late June 22. At present, no oil infrastructure appears to have been hit," they said.

"We expect any price strength to ease if there is no Iranian response," the analysts said.

Oil futures settled slightly lower on June 20 but remained elevated on the possibility that the US would get more directly involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran.

NYMEX front-month crude settled at $74.93/b, up $14.14 from end-May.

The White House said June 19 that Trump would decide within two weeks whether to involve the US in the conflict.

Oil prices remain elevated as a huge amount of uncertainty remains over the situation in the Middle East, with the potential for disruption to supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil transits.

Marine insurance costs for transporting energy and commodities in Middle Eastern conflict zones have surged, reflecting heightened maritime risks amid the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict.

"The world has enough oil. Crude stocks have been building and are now up over 200 million barrels since early January. And with OPEC+ increasing production, stocks should build substantially after the summer peak refinery demand season, all else being equal," Joswick and Bambino said.

"So, even if Iranian exports are affected, physical oil balances are sufficient, as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains open (and we expect that it will)," they said.

The bullish bets on crude "might also reflect Israeli officials' recent apparent calls for regime change in Iran," said Clearview Energy Partners in a June 19 report.

Clearview analysts pointed to a recent warning from Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei "cannot continue to exist."

"We regard explicit regime change efforts as a possible catalyst for Iranian retaliation against regional energy production facilities and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. The chaotic political aftermath of a regime change could also lead to a supply interruption even if production and export infrastructure remains intact: exports might stop, at least for a little while, because of institutional collapse," the analysts said.

The International Energy Agency is monitoring how the US strikes could impact oil and gas flows, Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA's director of energy markets and security, said June 22.

The IEA said June 20 it stands ready to act should the Israel-Iran conflict result in disruptions to oil supplies via Hormuz.

Israel bombs heavy water reactor

Trump's announcement followed news June 20 that a heavy water research reactor in Iran was seriously damaged June 19 by Israeli bombing, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The agency said it "assessed that key buildings at the facility were damaged, including the distillation unit."

The IAEA said in an earlier post on X June 20 that because the heavy water research reactor was under construction and non-operational, it "contained no nuclear material, so no radiological effects" occurred.

The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said in a statement on state television June 20 downplayed the impact of attack, saying that "Khondab nuclear facilities were hit by two projectiles" but "because of predictions [of attacks by Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities] there is no radiation, and no serious damage has been caused."