INTERVIEW: Rhino Resources targets first oil off Namibia by 2030

Cape Town-based Rhino Resources is bidding to be the "first to first oil" in Namibia's Orange Basin following its recent discoveries, with plans to fast-track its maiden offshore development alongside partner Azule as soon as 2030, its CEO said.

In an interview with Platts, Travis Smithard said Rhino had transformed from a cash-strapped junior to a well-funded senior explorer with its change of ownership in 2021 and is now pursuing an "aggressive" drilling campaign in its marquee PEL 85 block off Namibia.

"From late 2017 to 2019 we were trying to show the block to anybody who would look at it," Smithard said. "Nobody thought there was anything of value to be found."

But new funding in 2021 enabled Rhino to shoot 3D seismic and plan a drilling campaign, just as huge oil discoveries by Shell and TotalEnergies turned Namibia's Orange Basin into one of the world's hottest exploration destinations. "We went from being your traditional junior, scrapping for whatever finance was available to keep operations going, to an incredibly well-financed entity," he said.

In December 2024, Smithard brought in Azule Energy, choosing the joint venture between majors BP and Eni because it was "comfortable with the speed and aggression that we wanted to apply to this project", able to deploy capital quickly, and would not challenge Rhino for operatorship during the exploration stage.

Rhino and Azule each hold 42.5% interests in PEL 85, and Azule holds the right to take operatorship for the development phase.

In the first four months of 2025, the partners announced two light oil discoveries at their Sagittarius and Capricornus wells, with the latter encountering 38 meters of net pay, with a flow rate in excess of 11,000 b/d.

"Our aspiration is to be the first-to-first oil and to do so by 2030 is within the frame we'd be hoping to achieve," Smithard said. "Rhino in collaboration with our JV partners Azule Energy, NAMCOR and Korres will continue to assess which of the prospects are to be high-graded and progressed at pace."

Smithard said the company is currently preparing to drill its third exploration well, which could come as soon as July or August, subject to approvals. "If the next target that we drill has even better properties than what's already been found, then that's the one that we're most likely to try to pursue," he said.

Accelerated development

In early 2025, following a string of disappointing updates in Namibia, including a closely watched Chevron well that was ultimately dry and a $400 million write-down by Shell on its key Orange Basin block, many within the nascent Namibian oil sector looked to Rhino's PEL 85 campaign for signs of renewed hope.

Even TotalEnergies, whose giant Venus oil discovery is widely expected to be the first online, has identified challenges in getting production costs below its $20/b threshold, including high gas-to-oil ratio and record-breaking water depth of almost 3,000 meters.

However, Rhino's discoveries appear well-suited for accelerated development, Smithard said, with "a fluid content that seems to be a light oil, that has a low gas-to-oil ratio," in around 1,400 meters of water.

"If you can solve for your gas, you can effectively solve for your project," he added. "Our gas seems to be relatively low compared to those around us. We don't necessarily have the same level of gas handling challenge ahead of us."

Addressing an energy event in Paris in mid-May, Namibian petroleum commissioner Maggy Shino described Rhino's discoveries as "huge".

Nevertheless, Smithard cautioned against inflating expectations around Namibia, which has never produced any hydrocarbons. Officials, who estimate Namibia could hold over 11 billion barrels of crude resources, hope to overhaul its small economy.

"I think people forget that although there have been some really good successes...it is still very much frontier," he said. "Whilst some draw on Guyana as an analog, I think that Namibia may be a lot more complex from a subsurface perspective than Guyana."

The South American country has witnessed an economic transformation as a result of oil projects -- including the Starbroek Block -- operated primarily by US supermajor ExxonMobil following the first discovery in 2015.

"Given the hype, the government might have felt that they were being left behind. Everyone was talking about this absolute golden acreage," Smithard said. "I just think we need to manage expectations."

Expansion plans

While Namibia is Rhino's key focus, the company is also looking at opportunities to expand its upstream portfolio, to "emulate" what players like Africa-focused Tullow did, Smithard said, albeit from an exploration and appraisal standpoint, rather than by eking additional barrels from mature assets.

"We are very much in growth mode at the moment, both organic and inorganic. We are looking at discovered undeveloped, scale and mid-life production-type opportunities," Smithard said.

"The most natural starting point for our growth would be DUD acreage in West Africa. But we could look at more mature jurisdictions, and even North Africa quite frankly...[even] stuff in North America," he added. "We are at this point quite flexible."

The company would also look at opportunities in upcoming license rounds in Namibia, Smithard said.

South Africa plans

In its home country, Rhino has onshore gas exploration as well as methane, helium and hydrogen projects, and is currently undertaking environmental impact assessments.

"We are bullish on our position in South Africa, but there are a host of regulatory timeframe hurdles to get to development," Smithard said, noting that South Africa has seen less interest than Namibia, despite its geological similarities.

"South Africa is running out of gas in a material fashion," he said. "Domestic gas companies like ourselves and Renergen, and indeed offshore like TotalEnergies, Shell, you would think that these are critical projects for the security of the country, but for whatever reason, there seems to be a barrier to that acceptance."

A key challenge comes from environmental groups, he said, who have campaigned to halt oil and gas projects in recent years.

"A number of NGOs and anti-hydrocarbon entities, usually not South African-funded, seem not to really want to engage constructively with us to understand truly what are the risks and benefits of hydrocarbon exploration and production," Smithard said.