Middle East oil refining capacity on track to add 618,000 b/d by 2029

Middle East oil refineries are set to add 618,000 b/d of production capacity by 2029, turning the region into a net exporter equal to about 6 million b/d by 2030 and approaching 7 million b/d by 2040, according to an analysis by FGE NexantECA presented in Muscat on April 29.

Bahrain's Bapco Refining refinery will increase capacity by 113,000 b/d in the second or third quarter of 2025 while Oman's Duqm will add 25,000 b/d in the current quarter from a "debottlenecking," Iman Nasseri, Middle East managing director, told the Oman Maritime, Ports and Energy Forum.

Iraq will expand Baiji and Diwaniya by 70,000 b/d each, and Dhi Qar will add 100,000 b/d. Iran will add 60,000 b/d at South Adish in Q3 2025, PGS train 4 will add 120,000 b/d in Q4 2026 and Aftab will increase by 60,000 b/d in Q1 2027.

"We have a few projects still in Oman, UAE, Fujairah and Saudi Arabia, yet they are waiting for someone to take a final investment decision and finance those projects," Nasseri said.

He expects condensates and natural gas liquids to add to the region's net surplus of products over the next decade, rising 1 million b/d for condensates by 2033 and NGL's output up 2 million b/d over the same period.

The increase will be driven by Saudi Arabia's exploration for natural gas in Jafurah and Tanajib, Qatar's North Field expansion, Iran's South Pars wellhead compression, Kuwait's Jurassic reservoirs and the UAE's Diyab unconventional and Ghasha, Dalma and Hall offshore sour gas fields, Nasseri said.