Seasonal US crude stock builds could extend despite stronger refinery runs, exports

Seasonal US crude oil inventory builds likely extended in the week ended April 11, analysts surveyed by Platts, a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, said April 14, despite stronger refinery demand and exports.

US commercial crude stocks likely climbed by 3.5 million barrels to 445.8 million barrels, analysts said. The build would put inventories to the highest outright level since late June, but would leave them still 5.2% below the five-year average of data from the US Energy Information Administration.

The build comes despite expectations of stronger refinery demand. Total refinery utilization likely rose slightly for a second straight week, analysts said, climbing 0.3 percentage point to about 87% capacity. Meanwhile, total refinery net crude inputs likely averaged at around 15.65 million b/d, up 30,000 b/d from the week prior.

Stronger runs weighed on margins. Commodity Insights data showed that the WTI MEH cracking margin averaged $12.10/b in the week ended April 11, down from an average of $12.40/b so far in April.

US crude exports also climbed over the period, with outflows averaging 3.94 million b/d, according to data from Platts cFlow ship and commodity tracking software from S&P Global Commodity Insights. At that level, exports would be up nearly 700,000 b/d from EIA-reported levels the week prior and at a three-week high.

Nationwide, gasoline stocks likely declined for a seventh straight week, analysts said, with inventories seen 2.3 million barrels lower at 233.7 million barrels. The draw would put stocks at the lowest outright level since the week ended Dec. 27 and put them 1.1% below their five-year average, opening the widest deficit since early January.

Distillate stocks likely declined 1.6 million barrels to 109.5 million barrels, analysts said, falling 11% below normal for this time of year and hitting the lowest outright level since mid-November 2023.