14 Apr 2020 | 10:38 UTC — London

Global airline flying capacity cuts slow: OAG

Scheduled airline global flying capacity for the week beginning April 13 has fallen by around 5 million seats to under 35 million seats, after falling 58 million seats in the past four weeks, data from digital flight information provider OAG showed Monday.

In mid-January, 105 million seats were scheduled to fly globally, OAG data show.

Most regional markets appear to be operating below 15% of planned flying capacity, with the only slight positive being a 1% increase in Northeast Asia capacity, the data shows.

Domestic flying capacity has been the more resilient to travel restrictions brought about by the coronavirus pandemic; global domestic capacity has fallen by 57%, while international capacity is down 88% since mid-January.

The recovery in Northeast Asia has been driven by an increase in China's domestic market capacity, which has added 600,000 seats this week, with reports of rising demand and an expected boost from May holidays, according to OAG.

On the flipside, the US continues to make major reductions to flying capacity.

"For many airlines, the middle to end of May appears the latest thinking in terms of bringing back some capacity, but the situation remains extremely fluid," said John Grant, partner at consultancy MIDAS Aviation. "Our expectation is that next week's data will take us below the 30 million weekly seats mark from which point we look forward to seeing capacity growth return."

The physical NWE jet CIF cargo differential to ICE low sulfur gasoil futures hit a new record low of minus $88/mt Wednesday, and was at minus $85.75/mt Thursday.

SCHEDULED AIRLINE CAPACITY BY REGION, MILLION SEATS, WEEK STARTING

Region
20-Jan
30-Mar
06-Apr
13-Apr
% change, w/w
% change, Vs Jan-20
Asia: North East
25.2
12.5
11.7
11.8
1.0
-52.9
North America
22.6
17.2
11.7
8.55
-26.7
-62.2
Asia: South East
10.9
4.81
3.86
2.79
-27.7
-74.3
Asia: South
5.16
1.54
1.37
2.08
51.6
-59.7
Europe: Western
18.6
3.84
2.48
1.72
-30.4
-90.7
Middle East
4.93
1.76
1.62
1.63
0.4
-67.0
Europe: Eastern/ central
3.70
1.93
1.39
1.26
-9.3
-65.9
Latin America: Central
2.44
1.55
1.14
0.772
-32.0
-68.4
Latin America: Upper
1.74
0.673
0.513
0.449
-12.5
-74.2
Southwest Pacific
2.84
0.855
0.430
0.291
-32.4
-89.7

Source: OAG Schedules Analyser

TOP 10 SCHEDULED AIRLINES, MILLION SEATS, WEEK STARTING

Airline
20-Jan
30-Mar
06-Apr
13-Apr
% change, w/w
% change, Vs 20-Jan
Southwest Airlines
3.79
4.12
4.12
3.01
-27.0
-20.5
American Airlines
4.81
4.54
2.78
2.08
-25.0
-56.6
China Southern Airlines
2.88
1.42
1.13
1.35
19.4
-53.0
China Eastern Airlines
2.72
1.12
1.08
1.11
2.8
-59.0
Delta Airlines
4.53
2.36
1.45
1.09
-24.4
-75.9
United Airlines
3.54
2.21
1.31
0.960
-26.9
-72.9
All Nippon Airways
1.37
1.09
1.01
0.929
-7.6
-32.4
Wizz Air
0.697
0.883
0.894
0.891
-0.4
27.8
Air China
1.88
0.827
0.780
0.853
9.3
-54.7
Lion Air
0.868
0.721
0.715
0.632
-11.6
-27.2

Source: OAG Schedules Analyser