OPEC lowers forecasts for non-OPEC supply growth in 2024, 2025

OPEC indicated April 11 that it is more optimistic on the challenge of mitigating non-OPEC supply growth in the coming months, with downward revisions to expected production growth outside the bloc in 2024 and 2025.

A recent price rally has eased some pressure on the group, which continues to implement major supply cuts, despite the rapid growth in non-OPEC supply.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Dated Brent at $91.19 on April 10, up from $87.50/b on March 1 -- the last assessment before the group announced the latest extension to its voluntary cuts until the end of the second quarter.

The recent uptick in prices -- supported by the overlapping cuts by the wider OPEC+ alliance and conflict in the Middle East and Europe -- has led some analysts to forecast that the group may move to wind down some of its cuts in the second half of the year.

OPEC said in its closely watched monthly oil market report that it will remain vigilant and is prepared to act alongside its allies if necessary.

"The robust oil demand outlook for the summer months warrants careful market monitoring, amid ongoing uncertainties, to ensure a sound and sustainable market balance," OPEC said.

It sees non-OECD regions, mainly China, the Middle East and other countries in Asia driving demand.

The group next plans to discuss policy on June 1, but its agreements include the option to convene earlier, if market conditions warrant.

Non-OPEC supply

OPEC forecasts that non-OPEC supply will grow by 1 million b/d in 2024 -- revised down by 100,000 b/d from its previous report released in early March.

It also revised down its estimate of non-OPEC supply growth in 2025 by 100,000 b/d to 1.3 million b/d, the report said.

OPEC sees the bulk of this growth coming from the US, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and Norway.

The bloc did not change its forecasts for global demand growth, or the call on its own crude in 2024 and 2025.

OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 2.2 million b/d in 2024, with slight upward revisions to OECD Europe demand estimates offset by downward revisions to Africa and the Middle East.

It forecasts global demand growth of 1.8 million b/d in 2025.

OPEC's demand forecasts for its own crude were also unchanged at 28.5 million b/d in 2024, and 29 million b/d in 2025.

The 2024 forecast is 1.9 million b/d above current production, which would give OPEC significant influence over oil prices this year if it came to pass. OPEC said that its March crude output was up 3,000 b/d month on month at 26.6 million b/d, according to secondary sources, including S&P Global analysts.

On March 3, OPEC+ countries with voluntary production cuts extended them until the end of the second quarter. Most countries' quotas will remain the same, but Russia will transition to a reduction rather than a supply cut, bringing its crude production levels in line with Saudi Arabia's in June.

OPEC estimated OECD commercial oil stocks at 2.733 billion barrels as of February, down 25.7 million barrels month on month.

That included an increase in crude stocks of 19.6 million barrels, and a fall of 45.3 million barrels in products stocks.