Russian seaborne oil exports steady as China takes some crude destined for India

Russia's seaborne oil exports in February were little changed month on month as China took some volumes destined for India while poor weather and Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure had little effect on Moscow's key trade flows.

About 3.4 million b/d of crude shipped from Russian ports in February, according to tanker tracking data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea. That was up from 3.38 million b/d in January. Meanwhile, oil product exports slipped by around 60,000 b/d month on month, the data shows. Combined, Russian seaborne oil exports averaged 5.9 million b/d in February, in line with pre-war levels of early 2022.

Russia's latest crude export flows suggest the major OPEC+ producer continues to miss its official target of cutting exports by 300,000 b/d compared with the May-June 2012 average during the first quarter of 2024. Over the first two months of the year, Russian crude export flows also averaged about 3.4 million b/d, the data shows, some 255,000 b/d below the May/June average of 3.66 million b/d.

By destination, Russia continues to sell almost 80% of its crude into China and India. But flows to Indian refiners in February exceeded exports to China for the first time since November due to ongoing payment disputes with India and tighter sanctions enforcement.

Russia has had difficulty discharging its Sokol crude grade -- produced in Sakhalin -- at Indian terminals, with delays attributed by market participants to sanctions and payment issues, although Indian officials have denied this. Around four cargoes of Sokol crude were diverted from India in February to be delivered to independent refiners in Shandong and Tianjin, compared with just one such in January, according to trading sources.

As a result, ship-to-ship transfers of Russian crude off South Korea, a major transshipment hub for Sokol crude, fell for a second month in February to average 74,000 b/d, or less than half of the 2023 average, the data shows.

Despite the ongoing upheaval to seaborne trade via the Red Sea due to attacks by Houthi fighters, the data shows that Russia's biggest crude export grade Urals continues to flow at elevated levels from its Western ports. All Russian crude cargoes heading East from its Western ports continue to traverse the Red Sea, CAS yet to identify any tanker vessel transporting Russian crude to an East of Suez market via the Cape of Good Hope.

Oil products

Russia shipped about 2.5 million b/d of fuels and feedstocks in February, the data shows, down from 2.55 million b/d in January.

More storm warnings for the Black Sea curtailed operations at the Tuapse plant, which ships the bulk of the fuel it produces abroad via the Black Sea. As a result, loadings of Russian fuels and feedstocks at Tuapse slumped to about 100,000 b/d, or half of recent levels. A Jan. 25 drone attack on Rosneft's 240,000 b/d Tuapse refinery also damaged the plant's vacuum distillation unit.

Diesel and gasoil exports in February fell by around 150,000 b/d while naphtha flows recovered to average 473,000 b/d, the highest since June 2023, the data shows.

Looking ahead, Russian gasoline exports are set to slump in March after Moscow introduced a six-month ban from March 1 to help boost domestic supplies and curb pump prices. Russia exported around 210,000 b/d of gasoline in the first two months of 2024.

You can now track changes to Russian exports with our interactive global oil flow tracker.