Slowed passenger traffic growth only the 'tip of the iceberg': IATA

Monthly global passenger traffic saw the lowest monthly increase in nearly a decade in January though demand will likely drop lower amid coronavirus concerns, the International Air Transport Association said Wednesday.

In January, air passenger traffic was up 2.4% compared to the same period in 2019, measured in revenue passenger kilometers.

Growth in the Asia-Pacific region saw the smallest growth year-on-year, rising 0.4%. Europe and North America saw slightly stronger growth over the same period, with their respective RPKs rising 1.6% and 5.7%.

While slow growth was seen for global passenger traffic in January, most of the data refers to the period before global carriers announced flight modifications amid the spread of the coronavirus.

"January was just the tip of the iceberg in terms of traffic impacts we are seeing owing to the COVID-19 outbreak, given that major travel restrictions in China did not begin until 23 January," explained Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's director general.

While service modifications originated on routes to mainland China, suspensions have since seeped into other regions.

Of the three major US-based carriers — Delta Air Lines, American Airlines and United Airlines — flights to Beijing, Chengdu, Hong Kong Milan, Seoul, Shanghai and Tokyo originating in the US have been suspended with varying timelines.

Since the introduction of route modifications, the USGC jet differential fell as low as futures minus 14.50 cents/gal, the lowest level since December 29, 2017. Outright pricing also fell to multi-year lows on February 28 when value was assessed at 137.23 cents/gal according to S&P Global Platts data.