Asia crude oil: Key market indicators for Feb 28-Mar 4

Crude oil futures is expected to rise in the week of Feb. 28-March 4 as the Russia-Ukraine crisis dominates headlines and tensions between the two escalate, fueling a strong uptick in oil prices.

At 0300 GMT Feb. 28, front-month April ICE Brent crude futures stood at $101.70/b, up $3.77/b (3.85%) from the Feb. 25 settlement.

Middle East Crude

** This week's focus will be on the official selling prices of April loading crude by various Middle East producers lead by Saudi Aramco.

** Producers are expected to hike prices for all Asian bound crude by $1/b-$1.50/b, with the sour crude complex rising sharply this month and expected to remain strong in March.

** Sentiment for March spot trade to remain healthy as Asian product demand continues to grow and peak summer driving season approaches; possibly boosting gasoline demand and leading to increase buying interest for some Middle East light, sour crudes.

** Arbitrage crudes will likely remain an expensive option and buyers may have to seek Middle East grades to cover sanctioned Russian crudes.

** Dubai cash-futures, or M1-M3, averaged $4.20/b the week ended Feb. 25, against $4.01/b the week ended Feb. 18.

** Intermonth spreads widened during mid-morning trade Feb. 28 with April-May pegged at $2.06/b, up 20 cents/b from Asia close Feb. 25.

** April Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps was pegged at $8.93/b mid-morning Feb. 28, down from $9.77/b at Feb. 25 close.

Asia Pacific Crude

** Trading activity for Asia Pacific sweet crudes is expected to remain thin in the last week of the April trading cycle, with most end-users having already fulfilled requirements.

** Market participants will be looking out for subsequent trades on April-loading barrels of Australia's North West Shelf condensate, as condensate tender activity from Indonesia's Pertamina remained muted.

** Fresh trading cycle for Far East Russian grades will commence this week, with market participants awaiting tender activity for May-loading Sokol crude.

** Regional crude market participants will look out for spot trades in Malaysia's MCO crude basket, including April-loading Miri and Kikeh crudes.

** Trading activity for April-loading Australian heavy sweet Vincent crude could emerge this week, as outlook on cash differentials remained hinged on quality changes for the crude.

** Traders are expecting February Malaysian MCO OSPs, Indonesia's February ICPs and Brunei's January OSP this week.

Delivered Crude

** Participants will continue to monitor fresh trades for June delivery US WTI Midland crude, following an uptick in cash premiums for May delivery barrels, post CPC Taiwan's buy tender.

** Cash premiums for Brazilian Tupi crude could remain supported amid healthy crude demand from the West and a backwardated market structure.

Crude futures

** April ICE Brent futures contract rose 10.1% on the week at $101.59/b at the Asian close Feb. 25, while April NYMEX light sweet crude was 6.09% higher at $94.70/b.

** Oil prices breached $100/b during the week ended Feb. 25 following Russia's military invasion into Ukraine.

** The US, Canada, and European allies on Feb. 26 imposed new financial sanctions on Russian banks, including curbing access to the SWIFT messaging system, though exemptions are being made for oil and gas to avoid major supply disruptions.

** OPEC+ will meet March 2 to decide on a 400,000 b/d increase in output in April. Russia is the largest producer in the OPEC+ alliance alongside Saudi Arabia, accounting for about 10% of total global supply.