UK accelerates ban on new gasoline, diesel cars sales to 2035

London — A planned UK ban on sales of new gasoline and diesel vehicles will be brought forward by five years to 2035 and will now include sales of both hybrids and plug-in hybrids.

Billed as part of the UK's moves to meet its goal to reach 'net-zero' carbon emissions by 2050, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson outlined the new policy Tuesday at an event to launch a UN climate summit in November.

In 2017, the UK first announced a ban on sales of new conventional diesel and gasoline cars, from 2040, following similar measures by France, in a bid to lower emissions and improve air quality.

At the time, the UK said its cut-off for conventional cars and vans would mean gasoline and diesel hybrid vehicles would still be permitted to be sold in 2040.

Europe's third-biggest oil consumer after Germany and France, the UK market for road fuels amounts to about 35 million mt/year, equivalent to just under 45 billion liters. Sales of gasoline currently represent about 35% of road transport demand, while sales of diesel represent 65% of total demand.

The policy move irked car makers and refiners, which many expect to face market upheaval from the phase-out date for gasoline and diesel cars well before the 2035 deadline.

UKPIA, the UK's refining and downstream industry body warned that the policy may risk progress on cutting emissions as it is 'picking winners' instead of allowing for consumer choice and technological development.

"We need to focus on the ends and not the means. That must include recognizing that ICE (internal combustion engine) and hybrid vehicles are part of the long-term solution to decarbonization," UKPIA Director General Stephen Marcos Jones said in a note.

The president of UK motoring services company AA, Edmond King, tweeted that the plan could backfire by pushing drivers to hold onto their diesel or gasoline cars longer than expected.

Tougher deadline in EU countries

Although the new policy is subject to further consultation, energy analysts Wood Mackenzie estimated that bringing the ban forward to 2035 would reduce overall UK road fuel demand for passenger cars by a further 10% by 2040, equivalent to over 40,000 b/d.

"To reach this ambitious target would require a much stronger ramp-up in sales of battery electric vehicles between 2030 and 2035," Wood Mac said in a note.

It said it assumed that nearly all UK car sales will be zero-emission vehicles in 2040, adding, however, that zero-emission vehicles will still likely account for less than half of all cars driving on UK roads in 2040 given the slow turnover of the car stock.

Pressure on the government to toughen its stance on conventional cars came as some other countries in Europe had shorter-term goals to ensure all new cars and vans are zero-emission.

In Norway, Europe's EV powerhouse, the government will only allow electric and hybrid vehicles to be sold starting in 2030. Denmark, German and Ireland also intend to ban the sale of new diesel and gasoline cars by 2030.

The UK became a net importer of oil in 2013 and inflows of gasoline and diesel also increased over the last decade, in particular, to meet the growth in demand for diesel.

In 2016, the costs of these imports were GBP1 billion ($1.3 billion) and GBP 5 billion for gasoline and diesel respectively, according to government figures.

The UK is also banking on low-emission vehicles cutting the country's reliance on imported oil, and reducing its exposure to the volatility of global oil markets.