Key OPEC ministers meet in Riyadh as Trump demands output boost

Several key OPEC ministers gathered in Riyadh on Jan. 27, delegates said, ahead of a scheduled monitoring committee meeting Feb. 3, where the future of the group's production cuts could be debated, amid demands by US President Donald Trump for more oil.

Photographs shared with S&P Global Energy showed oil ministers from key OPEC power brokers Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq at the meeting. Also present was minister Khalifa Abdulsadek of Libya, which is not subject to an OPEC production quota.

One OPEC source described the talks merely as "friendly discussions", without elaborating. Another confirmed that the ministers discussed production plans and the market outlook.

The unexpected meeting follows repeated hectoring by Trump in recent days, which has taken the sheen off a recent oil price rally. Platts-assessed Dated Brent rose to a five-month high of $83.06/b on Jan. 15, due primarily to a new batch of sanctions on Russian crude, but has since fallen by more than $4/b. Platts is part of Energy.

Trump, who frequently weighed in on OPEC production policy during his first term, has called on the group to boost output to bring down prices a number of times since re-entering the White House on Jan. 20, insisting it would bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

He has also vowed to unleash US oil production and impose tariffs on traditional allies to redress trade imbalances, as well as on China, the world's largest crude importer. High production in the Americas, including the US, and weaker-than-expected Chinese demand posed a key challenge for OPEC and its Russia-led allies in 2024, as did quota-busting by some members, including Iraq.

OPEC and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia are yet to publicly address Trump's comments, but delegates told Energy that the group was proceeding cautiously due to the US leader's unpredictability. One senior OPEC official said the bloc was seeking "sustainable clarity" amid a flurry of energy-related executive orders.

The OPEC+ alliance is currently holding some 5.8 million b/d of crude off the market to support prices, and eight voluntary cutters including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE have delayed three times plans to reintroduce some 2.2 million b/d to the market. They are now on course to do so in April, subject to market conditions.

In a speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan. 23, Trump said OPEC's failure to pump more crude prior to his election "didn't show a lot of love".

Trump has long vocally opposed OPEC production cuts, blaming them for high gasoline prices in the US. In 2018, Riyadh answered Trump's call to boost output by more than 1 million b/d after he tore up the Iran nuclear deal, but were left blindsided when the president issued waivers to eight countries to continue purchasing Iranian crude, hitting prices.

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, due to meet on Feb. 3, is tasked with overseeing the group's production policy and making recommendations to the wider OPEC+ membership. The full OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled for May 28.

Saudi Arabia co-chairs the JMMC with non-OPEC ally Russia, while Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait also serve on the committee.