US coal 2020 production forecast at 522 million st, down 26.1% on year: EIA

Houston — The US Energy Information Administration forecast coal production of nearly 522 million st in 2020, down 26.1% from the 2019 output of 705 million st, the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook reported Dec. 8.

For 2021, the EIA projected output of about 624 million st, down 0.5% st from November's forecast.

Coal exports for 2020 were projected to total about 64 million st, down 31.2% from last year's exports. Exports in 2021 are projected to be 67.5 million st. up 0.5% from the previous month's projection.

Power sector consumption was forecast to total 436 million st in 2020, down 19.1% from 2019 consumption, and about 537 million st in 2021, down 1.6% from November's STEO.

Total US consumption was forecast to be about 478 million st in 2020, down 18.6% from 587 million st in 2019. The EIA 2021 forecast was about 580 million st, down 1.5% from November's projection.

Compared with US coal-powered estimated generation share of 24.3% in 2019, the December EIA report projected coal generation share of 20% in 2020 and 24% in 2021.

Natural gas generation share for 2020 was projected to be 39%, up from 37.3% in 2019. In 2021, gas generation was projected at 34%.

The EIA forecast gas production at 90.9 Bcf/d for 2020 in December, down from 2019 production of about 92.2 Bcf/d. The 2021 projection was 87.9 Bcf/d.

Power sector consumption for 2020 was forecast to be 31.6 Bcf/d, up 2% from 2019 consumption, and 26.4 Bcf/d in 2021.