INTERVIEW: Coal power to remain undisputed for another decade, says Seriti Resources Group CEO

The world will gradually move away from thermal coal to cleaner sources of fuel, but there may not be any decline in coal consumption until 2035 or even 2040, despite accelerated advances in renewables, Seriti Resources Group CEO and newly appointed FutureCoal Chairman Mike Teke told Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.

"We are seeing countries working on technologies to deal with the intermittency of renewables, particularly wind and solar, and battery storage. But what is imperative to understand is the fact that you're not going to switch off immediately," Teke said.

Teke, who assumed the role of Chairman of FutureCoal -- a global alliance of coal producers, consumers, and investors -- effective Aug. 12, believes that current technologies that can ensure reliability and compete with coal-based power, along with baseload assurance, do not yet guarantee a seamless flow of energy.

"We are talking about a 15-year horizon as far as strong coal consumption is concerned, mainly in Asia. But beyond that, there could be technologies that could further improve the performance and reliability of green energy," he added.

Global coal consumption remained at record-high levels in 2024, at 8.7 billion mt, with China and India accounting for over 70% of the total despite a rise in renewable capacity and generation. According to the IEA, all categories -- namely seaborne thermal coal, total thermal coal, seaborne metallurgical coal and total metallurgical coal -- set new records in both growth and overall volume.

Teke said that while countries continue to build renewable capacities, in the combustion phase everyone needs to focus on high efficiency and low emissions from coal, which can be achieved through carbon capture, flue gas desulfurization, and other technologies that ensure uninterrupted power with lower emissions. "This world, mainly Asia, is full of coal-fired power stations, which you are not going to leave as ghost towns and shut down," Teke added.

'Western funding for transition is debt trap': Teke

While acknowledging that funds offered to coal-heavy economies by a consortium of countries and banks in Europe and the US are aimed at cleaner climate goals, Teke said such financing will ultimately become debt for future generations.

"Who will end up taking responsibility for that debt in the future? Later, the probability is there will be more funds needed for new technologies because the old ones have become obsolete — so it's going to be a debt spiral for a very long time," he said.

South Africa was offered an $8.5 billion package to accelerate its transition away from coal and toward clean energy, with contributions from the UK, EU, US, France, and Germany. Indonesia's Just Energy Transition Partnership, worth $20 billion, and Vietnam's $15.5 billion package were also aimed at similar transitions.

Prices, demand to recover over 12-18 months

Speaking on the current oversupply in the global thermal coal market, which has had a visible impact on seaborne prices, Teke said this is due to the cyclical nature of the coal industry and possible overestimation of demand.

Thermal coal seaborne prices have either remained rangebound or fallen since the start of 2025 amid more supply, higher domestic production by the two largest coal consumers -- China and India -- as well as milder-than-expected extreme weather conditions.

Platts assessed the FOB Kalimantan 4,200 kcal/kg GAR thermal coal at $42.10/mt Aug. 12, a two-month high but down from $48-$49/mt levels in January. FOB Newcastle 5,500 kcal/kg NAR was assessed at $68.50/mt Aug. 12, down from $80/mt at the beginning of 2025. Similarly, FOB Richards Bay 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal price was last assessed at $70/mt Aug. 11, down from $83/mt at the beginning of the year.

"As we continue to notice changing weather patterns, I'll give a horizon of probably 12-18 months for a complete recovery in demand and prices, and that will come from alignment in supply by exporting nations on both the domestic and export fronts," Teke said.

"Blackouts, rising costs and strained grids are becoming the norm, not the exception. And yet, despite this, coal remains the world's largest source of electricity. It remains a backbone of steel, cement and heavy industry."