European mobility sinks to two-month low as major new lockdowns loom

London — Economic mobility indicators in Europe's largest economies have fallen to more than two-month lows, according to Google data, as the growing wave of second-wave lockdowns in the region continues to curb energy demand.

Based on activity at workplaces, retail and recreational sites, and transport hubs, average mobility indexes in Germany, the UK, France, Italy, and Spain were 23.6% below pre-crisis levels in the week to Oct. 25, according to the latest Google data, marginally lower than the previous week and the lowest regional average since Aug. 21.

Often used as a proxy for energy demand, Google measures mobility on the number of visits and length of stay at locations such as offices based on mobile phone location data.

The data shows that economic mobility fell in all countries compared with the previous week, with the biggest falls in France (7 percentage points) and Italy (3 pp).

In Germany, Europe's biggest economy, weekly average mobility stood at 18% below pre-crisis levels on Oct. 25, the data shows, the lowest since mid-June.

This week France and Germany both announced partial national lockdowns as Europe struggles to bring the latest wave of coronavirus under control. Both countries imposed new lockdowns to the end of November while other European countries have been ramping up regional curbs on travel and other activity. The announcements helped to dent global oil prices this week, sparking fresh concerns over near-term oil demand.

"Although the measures are more targeted this time with schools and large parts of the economy such as factories remaining open, the return of France's infamous 'attestation' threatens to chop off 650,000-850,000 b/d of oil demand in November and Germany's lockdown could potentially remove a similar amount," Norwegian consultant Rystad Energy said in a note.

S&P Global Platts Analytics on Oct. 29 raised its estimate for the impact of the pandemic on global oil demand this year by 200,000 b/d, citing the tightening restrictions in Europe and growing concerns over new COVID-19 cases in the US.

Global oil demand will contract by 8.5 million b/d in 2020 with Europe accounting for around 1.6 million b/d of the total, according to Platts Analytics.