COMMODITIES 2025: Brazil, Australia set to lead global beef exports in 2025

This is part of the COMMODITIES 2025 series where our reporters bring to you key themes that will drive commodities markets in 2025.

Brazil and Australia are expected to lead the race in global beef exports in 2025 at a time of a complex landscape for beef production and trade as both the countries adapt to evolving market pressures and opportunities.

Brazil moves toward shifting cattle supply in 2025

Brazil is in the wake of a record-setting year for beef production and exports, but the outlook for 2025 points to a turnaround in processing amid continued strong global demand.

According to the analytical team at S&P Global Commodity Insights, Brazil is likely to set a new record in 2024, processing 45.3 million heads of cattle and producing 12.06 million metric tons of beef. However, projections indicate a 7% decline in cattle harvest in 2025 year-over-year, resulting in a total of 42.3 million heads processed. Beef production is also expected to decrease by 5% year-over-year, reaching 11.4 million metric tons.

A significant shift in the cattle cycle towards female retention for breeding is expected for next year, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, coupled with cattle harvest figures from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock under the System of Federal Inspections, known as SIF in Portuguese, that accounts for 80% of the overall Brazilian cattle harvest. This transition is expected to lead to a reduced cattle herd, a declining female harvest rate, and consequently, lower cattle processing volumes in the coming year.

Despite the anticipated decline in production, Brazilian exports are expected to remain strong, potentially surpassing 2024 levels, which may also impact pricing trends.

The international beef market in 2024 exhibited distinct phases, with China dominating purchase negotiations in the first half of the year. But the market outlook for 2025 is increasingly toward a tug-of-war between the higher live cattle costs and the still lukewarm demand in China.

While beef export prices do not follow the trend of increased cattle prices, excessively mismatched and depressed prices may cause Brazilian beef exporters to reduce their supply to China and seek other markets instead, as it happened in the first half of the year.

Australia: Herd shifts, strong exports and market challenges

In 2025, the Australian cattle herd is anticipated to be consisting of grass-fed male cattle, noted a market source. More mature cows will be turned off, undergoing finishing, after a hefty restock phase, therefore the country's herd is expected to contract, according to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) forecasts.

The forecasts highlight that the Australian cattle harvest rate will increase by 2.5% to 8.4 million head, with production reaching 2.55 million metric tons, while carcass weights are expected to drop by 1.6% on the year to 304.7 kg. The average carcass weight is currently 20 to 30kg above that of a decade ago, pushing beef production to a record high.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation remains neutral, and while a La Niña watch is in place over the next few months, most modeling suggests it would be weak and short-lived.

Should neutral conditions remain through the Southern Hemisphere winter, cattle turnoff and beef production is likely to remain elevated, supported by recent widespread inventory expansion and strong export demand that continues to support Australian cattle prices, according to Jack Mullumby, Head of APAC Livestock and Proteins at S&P Global.

An upward trend is anticipated for Australian beef exports, amid strong demand and falling world production, according to the December Quarter Report of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) and S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts.

The current beef shortage in the US, preferential market access for Australian beef, and the weaker Australian dollar will support strong US demand. Australian lean ground beef export prices to the US are expected to remain strong. However, trade risk is present in the US with upcoming tariffs and the potential for another port strike at the US East and Gulf Coast ports in January, Commodity Insights analysts said.

In North Asian export markets, in particular Japan and South Korea where Australia and the US compete for market share, demand for Australian beef from these countries is expected to remain strong amid low US beef export availability. However, high global beef prices --underpinned by low US production--, are likely to create challenging conditions for beef imports more generally in north Asian markets, according to Mullumby. This could be exacerbated by the depreciation of the Japanese yen and the South Korean won and household financial constraints, according to ABARES. China's demand is another key factor impacting Australian beef exports, ABARES added.

US beef imports to remain strong in 2025, on low domestic supply

In the US beef market, S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts that the cattle herd will enter a neutral or slight rebuilding phase. Although this trend may support production, 2025 is expected to still see a decline. Prices for both cattle and beef remain high, with potential for further increases in the coming year. Even with some rebuilding underway, analysts suggest that US production levels will rebound in 2026 or 2027.

Amid dwindling beef production following a tight cattle supply, the US market is likely to increase its reliance on imported beef in 2025, even with tariffs in play.

The incoming US presidential administration has announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. In the case of beef, import tariffs come at a time when there is a much-needed lean trim supply coming from imports, according to Commodity Insights' analytical US team. The new administration has yet to specifically address the largest US beef import partners: Australia and Brazil.

The US remains the highest-priced global market with persistent demand. Platts US CIF Beef Price Assessment reached this highest price per metric ton in December, increasing 7% on average for lean beef, since the assessment began on March 18.

The US Department of Agriculture forecasts a slight increase of 1% for US beef imports in 2025 to 2.07 million metric tons. Amid a lower beef production and higher prices for imported beef stocks, US domestic beef consumption is likely to drop 2% in 2025, to 12.65 million metric tons, according to USDA projections.

Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.