Indian rice exporters mixed on market expansion amid record harvest projections

Indian rice exporters expressed mixed sentiments on exploring new export markets amid bumper crop projections for the marketing year 2025-26 (October-September), market sources told Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, at the Bharat International Rice Conference on Oct. 30-31.

The two-day event brought together leading exporters, buyers, and analysts to discuss India's rice trade outlook and global competitiveness.

India's rice exports for MY 2025-26 are set to rise to 22-23 million mt, up 10%-15% year over year, according to the Indian Rice Exporters' Federation, Platts reported Sept. 26. IREF forecasts exports at 30 million mt, up 50% year over year, against the backdrop of a bumper crop with estimated production at 145 mil mt.

Energy projects India's rice production for MY 2025-26 at 151.8 million mt, up 2.8 million mt year over year.

India's most commonly exported rice variety is IR 64, primarily imported by the African continent, and basmati varieties are imported by the Middle East.

Despite robust volumes, exporters voiced concern over India's limited progress in value addition and branding.

"India's overall rice export value hasn't been increasing, largely because we are still seen as the cheapest source of rice globally. It's time to think differently. While Thailand and Vietnam export 2-4 million mt of glutinous rice and have built strong brands like Hom Mali and DT8 5%, India hasn't developed similar recognition for varieties such as Sona Masoori or Govindbhog," said Nitin Gupta, senior vice president of Olam Agri India, at the conference.

Gupta emphasized that India's export competitiveness could improve further with lower logistics costs and a focus on new markets.

"We've made good progress in infrastructure and logistics, but reducing logistics costs further will strengthen our competitiveness. India should also expand into untapped markets such as the Philippines, the world's largest rice importer, as well as South Korea and Japan. Currently, we export around 12 million mt to Africa, 5-6 million mt to the Middle East, and another 2-3 million mt to Europe, the US, and Oceania, but our presence in Far East markets remains negligible," he added.

While some exporters remain optimistic about expanding India's market footprint, others are more cautious, citing oversupply and challenges to global demand.

"The government might look at blending rice ethanol with diesel. We have an oversupply of rice and other grains, and finding new export markets will be difficult," said Vivek Sharma from Agri Expert, highlighting concerns about domestic stock management and limited international demand growth.

Meanwhile, some exporters viewed India's hosting of the BIRC as an opportunity to rebuild its reputation and market share lost during export restrictions in 2022 and 2023. A Delhi-based exporter said that such international events could help India reconnect with global buyers and restore confidence in its export reliability.

However, not all participants shared the same level of optimism. A Chhattisgarh-based exporter cautioned that developing strong branding for niche rice varieties, such as Govindbhog and Jeera rice, would require a long-term effort. The exporter noted that while India has the potential to diversify its product range, establishing these varieties in global markets would require patience and sustained marketing.

An Andhra Pradesh-based exporter echoed similar concerns, emphasizing the importance of branding to boost exports of local varieties. "Sona Masoori, a popular rice variety from Andhra, is not getting exported to its potential to [Persian Gulf] countries as sellers [in the region] are selling local rice varieties that look similar to Sona Masoori but are cheaper than India rice," the exporter said, underscoring the need for better brand recognition to differentiate Indian rice in competitive markets.

A Guntur-based exporter noted that establishing a brand identity for niche varieties would necessitate substantial investments and a long-term commitment.

"Branding niche varieties for untapped markets would take a lot of investment, and currently, price drivers in the market are high. Hence, it would take five to 10 years to create a niche varieties brand," the exporter said.