US beef market participants reject Trump’s Argentine-beef plan to lower prices

US President Donald Trump's plan suggesting that the US could buy Argentine beef to lower US prices was rejected by participants in the US beef market, who dismissed it as harmful for US producers and technically unfeasible.

After Trump said on Oct. 16 that his administration was working on a plan to lower US beef prices, on Oct. 19 he added that the US would buy some beef from Argentina.

"If we do that, that will bring our beef prices down," he said, quoted by the Associated Press.

The possibility of the US market opening to more Argentine product raised the alarm among US producers. On Oct. 20, the CEO of the National Cattlemen's Beef Association, Colin Woodall said it was concerning that Argentina "with this expanded access to the US market harms American cattlemen and women, while also interfering with the free market."

"This plan only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices," said Woodall in a release. "Additionally, Argentina has a deeply unbalanced trade relationship with the US. Over the past five years, Argentina has sold more than $801 million of beef into the US market. By comparison, the US has sold just over $7 million worth of American beef to Argentina. Argentina also has a history of foot-and-mouth disease, which if brought to the United States, could decimate our domestic livestock production."

Traders in the US market also dismissed the plan on the basis that Argentina isn't a large enough exporter to make a difference in US prices.

"Buying beef from Argentina will not move USA beef prices significantly – they are not a big enough exporter," a trader told Platts.

According to the Argentine National Institute of Statistics and Census, Idec, Argentina's fresh, chilled, and frozen beef exports totaled 72,551 mt in September, with a total revenue of $401.7 million.

"I do agree that Argentina is not large enough to make a significant impact to beef prices," Principal Protein Analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights Caleb Hurst said. "But even if the deal between the two countries [US-Argentina] allowed for unlimited trade, I don't think Argentina could produce enough to put a dent into beef prices. Especially given the fact that Argentina also has strong domestic consumption."

To make a difference in US prices, the amount of imported beef would have to be at least 200,000 mt, the trading source added.

A second trader agreed: "Interesting comments by the President and everyone will be waiting to see what the final outcome is. I don't see this changing the market, I think the big one will be any change to the Brazil tariff."

Brazil-US tariffs issues disrupt cattle, beef prices

The demand to replenish lean beef in the US has led to higher import needs throughout 2025. Due to the current tariffs, trade between Brazil and the US is nearly impossible, prompting countries like Paraguay and Uruguay—other Latin American countries besides Argentina—to fill the gap in the US market left by Brazil. Nonetheless, these market conditions have contributed to increased cattle and beef export prices from these countries.

In Paraguay, cattle prices have risen to record highs throughout September and October. With prices around $70/15kg of live weight, the tight cattle supply also drove up beef export prices. Coupled with a favorable scenario for sending Paraguayan beef to the US, since Brazil remains out of the market due to tariffs, the prices of Paraguayan-origin beef in the US market also saw a significant increase.

The Full FFQ 90-CL has been traded at around $6,550/mt CFR, representing an increase of nearly $2,000/mt compared with January price levels, according to a source.

Meanwhile, hindquarter cuts also rose to $7,000/mt CFR, an exporter said. The gap left by Brazilian beef in the American market created opportunities for countries like Paraguay, which are also part of the overall quota, to increase their export volumes to meet US demand. However, the surge in demand, combined with a more moderate supply of animals, directly led to significant rises in cattle and beef prices.

Platts assessed the price of 90CL beef CIF US on Oct. 20 at $7297/mt, or $3.31/lb, for a 30- to 60-day shipment period, unchanged from the previous assessment. The price for 95CL beef CIF US also remained steady day-over-day at $7606/mt, or $3.45/lb, for a 30- to 60-day shipment period; while 85CL beef CIF US was assessed steady at $6945/mt, or $3.15/lb.

Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.