Vietnam fragrant rice prices hit 3-year low on low export demand, Philippines ban

Vietnam's fragrant rice prices have fallen to their lowest level in nearly three years, pressured by weak export demand and limited trading activity, market sources told Platts Oct. 16.

The sustained weakness underscores a slowdown in Vietnam's rice trade, with exporters struggling to secure fresh deals amid muted export demand. With few new bookings from key destinations, overall export activity is expected to remain subdued through the final quarter of 2025.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Vietnam's fragrant 5% rice at $430/mt FOB Oct. 16, down $14 month over month, the lowest since Sept. 26, 2022, when the variety was assessed at $430/mt FOB.

The decline mirrors broader weakness across Asian rice markets, with the Philippines, Vietnam's key buyer, largely absent from the market.

Early August, the Philippines, one of the world's largest rice importers, decided to suspend rice imports for 60 days from Sept. 1 to support domestic farmers impacted by falling prices during the harvest season.

In early October, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said the rice import ban would be extended to April 2026, with a limited exception in January, when around 300,000 mt of rice will be allowed to enter the country to augment supply, this as part of a broader effort to protect local farmers and more closely manage the country's rice supply.

A Ho Chi Minh City–based exporter said that the domestic rice market remained quiet this week, with slow buying and many warehouses holding back after the Philippines' rice import ban. Limited Cambodian paddy inflows and the fact that Vietnam's autumn/winter crop has yet to peak kept overall trading subdued.

As of Oct. 13, 28% of the autumn/winter crop in Vietnam had been harvested, with peak harvest expected from the end of October to December.

"Overall, rice complex is low across all origins and grades, so DT8 can't be an exception," a Ho Chi Minh City-based trader said. "The Philippines and Africa are the biggest DT8 markets. The Philippines has banned imports until at least the end of this year, and Africa's major contracts are already booked or being shipped to arrive before Christmas. So, no big new demand is expected for the next few months."

Still, some market participants believe prices may not fall much further.

"It's too low now, it should bounce back soon," another exporter based in Ho Chi Minh City said. "The Philippines imposed the ban without a plan, so Vietnam was a bit surprised for a short time. But low levels will trigger some sales; it can't go low forever. I don't think fragrant rice can go below the $420/mt level."

Meanwhile, Vietnam is expected to export 7.4 million mt of rice in marketing year 2025-26, down 8.64% year over year, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.