Emergency meeting called for grain exporters in Russia amid pressure for export restrictions

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has called an emergency meeting for Russian grain exporters for Oct. 11, traders said.

This came as exporters in Russia have been under pressure to reduce shipments, prompting calls for export restrictions, especially given that exports are nearing last season's figures despite lower production.

According to analytical center Rusagrotrans, Russia has exported 14.73 million metric tons of wheat so far this season (July-September), close to last year's figures at 15 MMt, with Egypt being the top buyer at 2.9 MMt. Russia is expected to harvest 82.1 MMt of wheat in 2024-25 and is set to export 47 MMt, down from 54.8 MMt in 2023-24, according to Platts data. Traders expect the introduction of restrictive measures, such as quotas and/or significantly high export duties.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the price of 12.5% Russian wheat at $231/t Oct. 8,up 2.67% on the week, marking the highest price in three months. Many sellers have stepped back from the market, awaiting further details following the Oct. 11 meeting call.

The Russian Grain Union said on Oct. 2 that it intended to appeal to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture with a proposal to review the methodology for distributing the export quota for the second half of the season. Grain exports from Russia "[exceed] reasonable parameters based on the export potential of the season and demand on the world," the union said on Telegram Oct. 2.

Russia usually caps the country's grain exports from Feb. 15 to the end of the marketing year on June 30, setting limits on the volumes for each of the country's wheat exporters and allocating the share of exports based on each company's export share in the previous year, with the leading exporters receiving the largest share of the export quota. For last season, it was capped at 24 MMt.

Multiple Russian regions declared an emergency for extreme drought conditions, impacting the 2025 next crop. This came after multiple regions were already hit by frosts and more droughts since early May, which cut down Russian wheat production for 2024-2025 and, as a result, export potential for the season.