US DATA: Agriculture Department raises MY 2025 beef import forecast 1.7% on month

The US Department of Agriculture revised its outlook for the 2025 marketing year beef imports to 5.364 billion lb, up 1.7% from the August estimate but 15.7% lower on the year, according to its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Sept. 12.

"The beef import forecast is raised for 2025 on continued strong demand for lean processing beef," the USDA said.

The on-month increase came despite US tariff concerns.

Meanwhile, the USDA's forecast for MY 2026 was unchanged on the month at 4.95 billion lb.

The USDA cited continued strong demand for lean beef trimmings as the reason for the on-month increase in the September report, Caleb Hurst, beef analyst with S&P Global Commodity Insights, said.

"While I don't disagree with the demand statement, it is likely difficult to lift imports by much the remainder of the year with the Brazilian tariffs still in place, and I still expect some declines from here over the next few months," Hurst said.

The US has tariffs on imports from its top five beef suppliers: Australia, Brazil, New Zealand, Mexico and Canada. However, the tariffs are not applied on beef from Canada and Mexico, as they are covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement.

Hurst suggested the USDA may be anticipating some additional imports from countries like Australia, Argentina and New Zealand in its forecast.

"But as we have discussed, other countries likely will not be able to completely fill the void left by Brazil," Hurst added.

Export forecasts slip

The USDA adjusted its beef export estimates for MY 2025 down 1.49% from August's report to 2.642 billion lb, and also decreased the MY 2026 export estimate 0.8% from August to 2.525 billion lb.

"Beef exports are reduced for 2025 and 2026 due to expectations of fewer supplies and increased price competition," the USDA said. "The reduction is carried into lower exports for H1 2026."

Platts, part of Commodity Insights, assessed 90CL beef CIF US at $6,923/mt, or $3.14/lb, on Sept. 11 for a 30-to-60-day shipment period, down from $7,077/mt on Sept. 10.

Production estimates decline

The US beef production estimate for MY 2025 ticked down slightly to 25.892 billion lb, compared against 25.992 billion lb in the August WASDE report. The volume is 4.3% lower year on year.

The department lowered the 2025 production estimate on reduced steer and heifer slaughter and lower cow slaughter for the third and fourth quarters, it said.

For MY 2026, beef production was forecast at 25.557 billion lb, slightly higher than the 25.537 billion lb forecast in the August report.

"Beef production in 2026 is raised slightly, with higher fed cattle slaughter more than offsetting lower bull slaughter," the report said.