USDA raises MY 2022-23 US corn production, ending stock estimates

The US Department of Agriculture raised its estimate for US corn production for the marketing year 2022-23 (September-August) by 45 million bushels to 14.505 billion bushels based on higher planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report, it said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report July 12.

The production estimate for MY 2022-23 is 4% lower from last year's US corn production estimate of 15.115 billion bushels.

An increase in production estimates for MY 2022-23 in July resulted in a higher ending stock estimate for MY 2022-23 from June, the USDA said. The USDA sees US corn ending stocks for MY 2022-23 rising 70 million bushels to 1.47 billion bushels.

The USDA lowered average farm price received by US farmers in MY 2022-23 by 10 cents/bushel to $6.65/bu, according to the report.

Corn beginning stocks were raised 25 million bushels for MY 2022-23, based on reduced feed and residual use for MY 2021-22 as indicated in the June 30 Grain Stocks report, said the USDA. The beginning stocks for MY 2022-23 are now seen at 1.51 billion bushels from 1.485 billion bushels seen in June.

Corn acreage was raised for MY 2022-23 to incorporate the estimate from the June 30 acreage report. The planted area under US corn for MY 2022-23 is now seen at 89.9 million acres from 89.5 million acres last month. The harvested acreage is seen at 81.9 million acres from 81.7 million acres, the USDA said.

The estimated acreage, however, is 4% lower than last year's 93.357 million acres. Platts Analytics sees US corn acreage to be at 90.2 million acres in MY 2022-23.

Analysts have attributed the year-on-year fall in corn acreage to higher fertilizer costs as corn is a fertilizer-intensive crop compared with soybean.

The USDA has maintained US corn yield at 177 bushel/acre for MY 2022-23 -- similar to last year's yield estimate.

Global corn ending stocks are seen at 313 million mt in MY 2022-23, up 2.5 million mt from June and higher than 312.28 million mt estimated for MY 2021-22.