US soybean 2020-21 production seen at 4.13 billion bu, up 14% on year

New Delhi — The US Department of Agriculture forecast for US soybean production for 2020-21 marketing year (September-August) is seen at 4.13 billion bushels, up 14% year on year, due to higher acreage and yield expectations, it said in its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report Tuesday.

While the soybean planted area in US is forecast up 10% year on year to 83.5 million acres in 2020-21, soy yield per harvested acre is set at 49.8, up 5% on the year, the report said.

The 2020-21 outlook for US soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports and lower ending stocks compared with 2019-20, the USDA said.

The soybean exports for 2020-21 is forecast at 2.05 billion bu, up 375 million bu year on year, ending soy stocks for the same period is expected at 405 million bu, down 175 million bu on the year, the report said.

With higher global soybean import demand for 2020-21 led by expected gains for China, US export share is expected to rise to 34% from the 2019-20 record low of 30%, the USDA said.

Average market estimates for US soybeans ending stocks in 2020-21 was at 430 million bu.

S&P Global Platts Analytics forecast the 2020-21 US soybean acreage at 84.5 million acres, yield at 50 bu/harvested acre, soybean production at 4,190 million bu, soy exports at 1.90 billion bu and ending stocks at 567 million bu.

2019-20 ESTIMATES

The US soybean is estimated to export 1.68 billion bu in 2019-20, up 100 million bu on April estimates, the report said. Soybean exports are reduced mainly on strong competition from Brazil, the USDA added.

Soybean crush is raised on higher soybean meal exports and increased domestic disappearance, the report said. Domestic soybean meal use is forecast higher with an expected reduction in available supplies of DDGs resulting from lower ethanol production.

With higher crush only partly offsetting lower exports, seed, and residual use, ending stocks are projected at 580 million bushels, up 100 million bushels, the USDA said.

The planted area estimate for 2019-20 was unchanged at 76.1 million acres, while the forecast for harvested area was also steady at 75 million acres, the report said.

USDA kept the US soy yield expectation at 47.4 bu/acre and soy production forecast was cut by 1 million bu to 3.56 billion bushels.

The average market estimate for 2019-20 US soybean ending stock was 488 million bu.

S&P Global Platts Analytics forecast the 2019-20 US soybean acreage at 76.1 million acres, yield at 47.4 bu/acre, soy production at 3.56 billion bu, exports at 1.76 billion bu and ending stocks at 502 million bu.

US SOY PRICES

The 2020-21 US season-average soybean price is projected at $8.20/bu, down 30 cents from 2019-20, the USDA said. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $290/short ton, down $10 from 2019-20 and soybean oil prices are forecast at 29.0 cents/lb, up 0.5 cent from 2019-20, the report added.

Global soybean production in 2020-21 is forecast up 26.6 million mt on year to 362.8 million mt, with Brazil's crop rising 7.0 million mt on year to 131.0 million mt, Argentina's crop is up 2.5 million mt on year to 53.5 million mt, the USDA said.

Global soybean exports are expected to increase 8.0 million mt on year to 161.9 million mt due to higher protein meal demand globally, the USDA said.

China accounts for most of the increase in shipments with imports rising 4 million mt on year to 96 million mt in 2020-21, the report said. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 98.4 million mt, down 1.9 million mt from 2019-20, the USDA said.