Brazilian rice exports decline 26% on year to 2.15 mil mt in 2024

Brazil's rice exports declined 26% year on year to 2.15 million mt in 2024, driven by adverse weather conditions affecting regional harvests, increased competition from neighboring countries, and fluctuating global demand.

The overall supply of rice was constrained due to a substantial reduction in planted area and lower yields caused by excessive rainfall linked to the El Niño phenomenon, raising concerns about crop development and leading to reports of diseased plants in key growing regions.

Additionally, Brazilian exporters encountered challenges in procuring rice at reasonable prices, which limited the available stock for export.

Many Brazilian buyers opted to delay purchases, anticipating price declines with the upcoming harvest, further contributing to the decrease in export activity.

The competitive landscape also shifted, with countries like Paraguay and Uruguay offering more favorable prices, thereby reducing Brazil's export market share.

A detailed breakdown of export volumes revealed a sharp decline in paddy rice exports, plummeting to just 385,504 mt in 2024 from 808,175 mt in 2023, reflecting a staggering 52% decrease on the year.

In contrast, milled rice exports increased 21% to 231,798 mt, while broken rice exports saw a slight rise from 432,729 mt to 451,917 mt, indicating a 4% increase.

However, these increases were insufficient to offset the lower paddy rice exports in 2024.

Key markets for Brazilian rice included Senegal, Costa Rica, and Venezuela. Brazil increased its market share in Senegal to 21.34% in 2024 from 15.33% in 2023, demonstrating a strong foothold in the region.

Conversely, Venezuela's market share decreased from 15.07% to 12.30%, highlighting shifting trade dynamics amid the country's economic challenges.

The pricing landscape for Brazilian rice was influenced by regional market conditions. In January 2024, Brazilian rice prices reached their highest level reported by Platts since 2021 at $930/mt, driven by limited domestic supply and competitive pricing from neighboring countries.

In contrast, the lowest recorded price in 2023 was $604/mt in May, as the Brazilian market faced reduced demand and oversupply following the harvest.

Looking ahead to 2025, the Brazilian government welcomed the renewal of Mexico's Anti-Inflation and High-Cost Package (PACIC) in January, which includes tariff exemptions relevant to Brazilian agribusiness exports.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs engaged in high-level discussions with Mexican stakeholders to advocate for the package's renewal, recognizing the significance of the Mexican market for Brazil.

In 2021, Brazil's agricultural exports to Mexico were valued at approximately $1.5 billion, increasing to over $2.7 billion between January and November 2024.

However, the new decree excluded milled long-grain rice from the list of products benefiting from import tax exemptions despite maintaining tariff exemptions for meat products, which collectively represented Brazil's main exports to Mexico in 2024, exceeding $849 million.

Additionally, discussions regarding the EU-Mercosur trade deal aim to enhance agricultural trade between the European Union and the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) by eliminating customs duties on a significant portion of agricultural exports.

While the EU will remove import duties on 92% of Mercosur exports, Mercosur will gradually eliminate high import duties on EU industrial products.

While this deal presents opportunities for increased market access and tariff reductions, it raises concerns among EU agricultural associations regarding the potential impact on local producers due to increased imports from Mercosur countries, further influencing the market landscape for Brazilian rice.