Russia's wheat exports likely to slump 24.3% on year in MY 2024-25: Rusagrotrans

The world's largest wheat exporter, Russia, is expected to see a 24.3% year-on-year slump in wheat shipments in the marketing year 2024-25 (July-June) to 42 million mt, amid a sharp drop in local production, grains transporter Rusagrotrans said in the Global Grains and Pulses Forum held in Dubai Feb. 18.

Such a sharp decline in shipments from Russia is likely to create a sizable supply gap in the market, likely fueling wheat prices in coming months, market sources present at the Global Grains and Pulses forum told S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Mirroring the sentiments Platts assessed global wheat prices have been surging in recent times.

Platts assessed Wheat FOB Black Sea (Russia, 12.5%) at $250/mt Feb. 17, up 6.4% on the month, while Wheat FOB Black Sea (Ukraine, 11.5%) was at $240/mt Feb. 17, which is 4.8% higher on the month, SPGCI data showed.

Domestic production woes

Inclement weather has been a major factor in cutting wheat production estimates for MY 2024-25, Rusagrotrans said.

Russia is estimated to produce 82.42 million mt of wheat in MY 2024-25, down 11.2% on the year, the grain transporter said.

However, according to Rusagrotrans, Russia's wheat production for MY 2025-26 is forecast to increase.

The country is expected to produce 84.6 million mt of wheat in MY 2025-26, up 2.4% on year. Russia's wheat output in MY 2025-26 might even hit 90.6 million mt if the weather is favorable in coming weeks, Rusagrotrans said.

Winter crop conditions have improved significantly due to abnormally warm weather in December and January, sources said.

However, there is a growing risk of spring drought and frosts in some western territories of the country could impact output by March-April, market sources said.

The world's major wheat importers, such as Egypt and Turkey will be keenly watching Russian weather in coming weeks and could seek alternative suppliers, market sources said. .