WASDE data: USDA cuts 2019-20 US corn export estimate to 1.725 billion bushels

Gurgaon, India — The US Department of Agriculture lowered its estimate for US corn exports for the 2019-20 marketing year (September-August) to 1.725 billion bushels (43.82 million mt), a decrease of 50 million bushels from its prior forecast last month.

"Exports are lowered, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January," the agency said in its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Tuesday.

Corn shipments from the US are over 50% behind last year's pace while combined sales and shipments are 29.5% behind, S&P Global Platts Analytics said in its WASDE preview report Monday.

USDA maintained its estimate for corn production in the US at 13.692 billion bushels.

The agency's estimates for corn acreage and harvested acres in the US were also unchanged at 89.7 million acres and 81.5 million acres, respectively.

The estimated yield for US corn also held steady at 168 bu/acre, while the agency's forecast for ending stocks of corn in the US unchanged at 1.892 billion bushels.

The agency raised its estimate for corn used for ethanol to 5.425 billion bushels from 5.375 billion bu in January.

"What could influence higher ethanol demand is poor test weight," Platts Analytics' WASDE preview report said.

The agency maintained its estimate for feed use in the US at 5.525 billion bushels.

SOUTH AMERICAN CORN EXPORTS

USDA maintained its estimates for corn exports from Brazil and Argentina for 2018-19 at 42 million mt, and 36 million mt, respectively.

According to USDA, the 2018-19 local marketing year in Brazil and Argentina runs from March 2019 through February 2020.

For 2019-20 marketing year, the agency's prediction for Brazil corn exports was kept unchanged at 36 million mt and its estimate of exports from Argentina was also steady at 33.5 million mt.

USDA also maintained its production forecast for Brazil and Argentina in 2019-20 at 101 million mt and 50 million mt, respectively.

The agency cut its forecast for Brazilian ending stocks of corn in 2019-20 to 4.28 million mt from 4.58 million mt in January.

GLOBAL CORN

The department trimmed its estimate for global ending stocks of corn in 2019-20 to 296.84 million mt from 297.81 million mt in January.

The USDA raised the forecast for global corn imports in 2019-2020 marginally to 167.99 million mt in February from its previous estimate of 167.42 million mt. The agency's export estimate was also raised to 165.77 million mt from 165.64 million mt.

The USDA raised its global corn production estimate for 2019-20 slightly to 1.112 billion mt from a 1.111 billion mt projection in January.