Japan's chicken imports exceed five-year average amid market volatility

Japan's chicken imports rose 10% year over year to 589,262 mt from January to November 2024, surpassing the five-year average by 13% and reaching record highs, according to Japanese Agriculture and Livestock Industries Corp. data.

However, imports in November fell 17% month over month to 51,967 mt, characterized by high inventory levels, weak buying interest and falling cash market prices for boneless legs.

The Platts assessment for Chicken Leg CFR North Asia was $1,960/mt at the end of Jan. 31, up 6% from Jan. 2, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.

Despite consistently high chicken inventory levels, Japanese sources said that strong demand—supported by a weak currency in January and elevated beef and pork prices—has helped maintain market stability. Nevertheless, importers anticipate declining chicken stocks due to constrained purchasing capacity in December, driven by high offer prices and reduced exports from Brazil.

Consequently, domestic market prices for imported boneless legs are rising. Current rates for boneless legs (200 g and up) are around Yen 370/kg, while sized boneless legs have increased to Yen 380/kg, reflecting rises of about 6% and 4%, respectively, from the previous week.

In South Korea, market sources indicated that prices for Brazilian boneless chicken legs (200 g and up) for January have risen by about $100/mt compared to December, driven by heightened demand amid dwindling inventory levels. South Korea's chicken imports for 2024 totaled 184,716 mt, down 20% from the previous year, according to data from the Korea Meat Trade Association. December imports included 12,980 mt of frozen chicken, marking a 26.1% year-on-year decrease. In the last quarter of 2024, South Korea imported 35,548 mt of frozen chicken, down 40% year over year.

Low boneless leg imports during the last quarter of 2024 contributed to these inventory challenges. Most importers have increased their purchases in January to balance supply and demand; however, concerns are growing that buyers may over-purchase in anticipation of rising prices.