New York Market Briefing

 1:30 pm

The Evolving North American Hydrocarbon Powerhouse: An Outlook for Crude Oil, Natural Gas & NGLs through 2027

• What do weaker oil prices mean for US and Canadian crude oil production? What developments are in store for exports of both light and heavy crude?
• What’s the path ahead for NGL production? And is there sufficient infrastructure to support the wellhead-to-water strategy?
• The once-reliable stability from the natural gas shale boom is giving way to heightened price sensitivity and greater market complexity. Production gains will depend on Haynesville, Permian-associated gas, and Appalachian volumes—but how will producers respond to volatile price signals in a capital-disciplined environment?

Aaron Brady, Executive Director

Veeral Mehta, Executive Director, North America NGLs

Matthew Palmer, Executive Director, Head of Americas Gas Research

2:15 pm

Around the world in naphtha with a stop in the US

• Naphtha supply/demand in the US
• Naphtha supply/demand globally
• Trade and pricing forecast

Ricardo Castillo, Director, Petrochemical Feedstocks

The link between olefins capacity rationalization, the chemicals margin trough, and feedstocks demand

• The pace of ethylene capacity rationalization has been picking up
• We will explain the expected capacity rationalization and its effect on the margin trough
• Operating rates at a given capacity level determine feedstock demand

Walt Hart, Head of Global Olefins

Balancing NGL supply for petrochemical demand

• Understanding the impact of US and Middle East supply dynamics and the implications of tariffs on trade and prices.

Veeral Mehta, Executive Director, NGLs/LPGs

3:00 pm

Networking Break

3:30 pm

Fueling the Future: Global and Regional Oil Demand Outlook Through 2027 Amid Slowing China Demand

• A first look at 2027 demand suggests uncertainty around a rebound, but it remains to be seen whether we are approaching a peak in demand.
• China has been responsible for the majority of refined product demand growth over the past 25 years, but its current slowdown raises questions about whether this is temporary or indicative of structural declines in demand.
• The potential for growth in India, Latin America, and Africa may play a crucial role in offsetting the flattening trajectory of growth in China.
• Policy shifts in mature OECD markets such as the US, Europe, and Southeast Asia could influence the expected demand declines.

Debnil Chowdhury, Executive Director, Head of Americas and Europe Fuels & Refining

Karim Fawaz, Director, Global Fuels and Refining

Brian Stetter, Director, North America Fuels and Refining

4:15 pm

AltView: What could we be missing?

• Another take on the oil market outlook for 2026 and introducing the new AltView medium-term outlook through 2030.

Shin Kim, Global Head of Alternative Oil View, AltView

Yanyu He, Head of Macro and Oil Demand, AltView

Paul Sheldon, Head of Geopolitics and OPEC+, AltView

Lenny Rodriguez, Head of Americas Oil and Global Pricing, AltView

1:30 pm

Key Market Trends and Uncertainties for Global Gas & LNG

• Short-term global gas and LNG outlooks
• LNG offtake signings and project development
• Trade deals drive investment but create oversupply risks
• Emergent geopolitical risks threaten market stasis
• Long-term trends and challenges

Ross Wyeno, Associate Director, LNG Short-term Analysis Lead 

2:15 pm

North American Power Market Outlook: from Demand Boom to Deployment Bottlenecks

• Unprecedented demand growth has arrived and is expected to accelerate. This demand will require an all hands on deck approach on the supply-side, but headwinds and bottlenecks persist.
• Thermal retirements fall amid a supply crunch, but expected to continue into the 2030s.
• An emerging role for nuclear uprates and new nuclear.

Patrick Luckow, Associate Director, North America Power & Renewables

3:00 pm 

Networking Break

3:30 pm

Volatile Future: Navigating the New Realities of North American Natural Gas

The North American natural gas market is entering a new era—marked by tighter fundamentals, rising export commitments, and shifting power generation dynamics. The once-reliable stability from the shale boom is giving way to heightened price sensitivity and greater market complexity. This session will explore the forces reshaping the landscape and their implications for pricing, investment, and infrastructure.

Key topics include:

• Export Surge Ahead: LNG exports are poised to more than double, while pipeline flows to Mexico climb 30%. What are the price and infrastructure implications of these outbound pressures?
• Demand Reinvented: Power sector demand is rising with AI-driven data center load, but gas faces headwinds from growing renewable capacity and the return of coal generation amid higher gas prices.
• Supply Tightrope: Production gains will depend on Haynesville, Permian-associated gas, and Appalachian volumes—but how will producers respond to volatile price signals in a capital-disciplined environment
• Infrastructure: Pipeline expansions, how will regional constraints and timing mismatches shape the Henry Hub forward curve?

Olivia Arcuri, Analyst, North America Gas Research

Matthew Palmer, Executive Director, Head of Americas Gas Research

 4:15 pm

Impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on US Power Markets

• Overview of OBBBA Provisions: Key provisions impacting power market dynamics and regulations.
• Capacity Expansion Impacts: Effects on capacity expansion and generation forecasts for renewables and fossil generators.
• Emissions Impact: Evaluating OBBBA's influence on power sector emissions levels.
• Price Dynamics: Effects on energy, capacity, and REC prices in the market.
• Financial Outlook: Financial implications for renewable and natural gas generators post-OBBBA.

Katherine Nelson, Senior Principal Research Analyst, North America Power & Renewables

1:30 pm

Unraveling US Climate Policy: Regulatory shifts under the second Trump administration

• What does the administration’s regulatory overhaul mean for climate and energy policy throughout the remainder of the current administration’s term and beyond?
• What does the shift in approach to policymaking mean for policy durability and regulatory certainty?
• What policy priorities of the administration remain outstanding?

Roman Kramarchuk, Head, Climate Market and Policy Analysis

Anna Mosby, Lead Analyst, Regional Climate Policy

Matt Williams, Senior Analyst

2:15 pm

Navigating the Energy Transition: Insights for CI Scenarios

Dan Klein, Head of Future Energy Pathways

Paul McConnell, Head, Outlooks and Scenarios Analysis

3:00 pm

Networking Break

3:30 pm

Can RECs, Carbon, and PPAs help sustain clean power?

The implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill pullback on clean power uptake are still being assessed – even as power demand is anticipated to be growing more strongly, given datacenter needs. Aside from pure market dynamics, there are still different support mechanisms that can underpin further development.  These include voluntary corporate targets (and association power purchase agreements), voluntary and compliance RECs from RPS and carbon market pricing in particular regions.

• The Northeast is a region with strong policies supporting decarbonization and clean power. Among the most dynamic compliance REC markets is PJM – a region of strong datacenter demand.  New England and New York are other RPSs that are relying on vulnerable offshore wind to meet their goals.  How are we expecting this to play out?  
• California carbon markets and the Northeast’s RGGi  program add costs to fossil-fired generation and thus offer more headroom for clean power.  How will these markets hold up given current pressures? 
• Many corporates – from utilities to hyperscalers - have taken on climate, clean energy, and carbon targets.  How will they go about taking these on, even as some of the key protocols for demonstrating decarbonization are being revised?  What are we seeing in terms of trends in PPAs?

Roman Kramarchuk, Head, Climate Market and Policy Analysis

Patrick Luckow, Associate Director, North America Power & Renewables

Matt Williams, Senior Analyst

4:15 pm

Clean Energy Supply Chain: Risks and Challenges

Alex Kaplan, Principal Analyst

Conway Irwin, Director, Investing in Energy

Anna Mosby, Senior Analyst