2025 Shanghai Market Briefing

The Middle East and Africa power markets are experiencing significant growth and transformation, driven by increasing energy demand and  infrastructure development. The region presents substantial opportunities for technologies and equipment adoption, as well as investment under the Belt and Road Initiative.

• How are power demand and generation expected to evolve in the Middle East and Africa?
• What are the attractive power supply options in the Middle East and  Africa?
• What are the investment opportunities and challenges in the energy sector in these regions?

Chengyao Peng, Research and Analysis Director

As we enter 2025, power markets face heightened uncertainties and shifting dynamics. Geopolitical tensions and ongoing power market reforms prompt power companies to reassess their strategic priorities. Key questions arise: 

• What emerging factors are reshaping power market fundamentals, especially in Belt-and-Road regions?
• How are power companies responding to these evolving dynamics?
• What opportunities and challenges arise from these changing market conditions?

Ella Chen, Principal Analyst, Power and Renewables

China’s power demand is undergoing a profound structural transformation. While energy-intensive industries have seen a marked contraction, emerging sectors, driven by "new productive forces", are demonstrating remarkable momentum. Looking ahead, the trajectory of China’s power demand growth will hinge on navigating multifaceted uncertainties, including trade tensions, extreme weather and the broader economic rebalancing.

• What role will emerging industries such as data centers, electric vehicles (EVs), and the renewable energy supply chain play in reshaping China’s power consumption patterns?
• How will trade conflicts influence the pace and direction of China’s power demand growth?
• What are the regional disparities in demand growth trends,  and how do these reflect broader economic and policy priorities?

Bing Han, Senior Principal Analyst

• An analysis of the global battery energy storage market installation outlook, with a focus on the impacts of policy shifts in China and the United States.
• Exploration of the monetization strategies for battery energy storage systems in key markets, including the evolution of merchant revenue streams over the past three years.
• Insights on the supply chain nearly halving costs since 2024, alongside projections for future pricing trends in Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS).
• Assessment of how the decline in costs has enhanced the economic viability of battery energy storage solutions across major markets.

Anqi Shi, Principal Analyst: Renewables Markets

• Market update on China carbon market
• Development of EU ETS and implication on China market
• Signposts to carbon markets

Caroline Zhu, Senior Analyst, Low Carbon Electricity APAC

• Global trade flows: Review of crude oil and refined products trade flows
• Market disruptions: Update on Hormuz and Red-Sea traffic, vessel sanctions, trade tariffs, USTR section 301
• Tanker Freight outlook

Benjamin Tang,  Director, Research and Analysis Team Lead, Crude and Refined Products Flows

Navigating Change: The Resilience of Naphtha in Petrochemicals

• The role of naphtha in Asia as a leading feedstock for petrochemical production.
• Key challenges posed by the global energy transition on naphtha availability.
• Strategies for producers to innovate and adapt.

Aaron Cheong, Associate Director, Feedstocks

Oil Demand Dynamics and Refining Landscape Amid Trade Tensions

• China’s energy transition pushes on: how far is the peak?
• Evolution of China's supply and refining landscape during demand structural transformation
• The role of trade in supply and demand imbalance

Minmin Hu, Senior Principal Analyst

• Biofuels and feedstock price trends for SAF and bio-bunkers
• Low carbon ammonia as an alternative bunker fuel and hydrogen carrier

Daphne Tan, Associate Director of Strategic Development

• Policy and Mandate Review
• Global Biofuel Market Outlook
• APAC Biofuel Market Outlook
• Feedstock challenges and trade flow
• Corporate Strategies and Investment

Linda Li, Senior Commodity Specialist

Olefin Market in Flux: Navigating Uncertainty and Outlook Ahead

• Olefins Market Landscape
• The Tariff Ripple Effect
• Feedstock Outlook

Sally Fu, Director, Olefins Research

• Demand drivers for long term Polyolefin market 
• Short term headwinds on supply side 
• Opportunities on trade market with potential risk

Will Xu, Associate Director, Polymers

• The sulphur value chain 
• What's the implication of low TC to sulphuric acid market 
• Impact of high sulphur price to metals leaching

Isaac Zhao, Senior Principal Analyst-Fertlizer

• How are US tariffs likely to disrupt steel supply chains?
• What do we expect from China’s steel production, consumption and exports in 2025?
• Is iron ore heading for an oversupply in coming years; how will prices react?
• What do trade tensions mean for coking coal trade flows?

Sylvia Cao, Principal Analyst

• Dry bulk Trade Outlook and Fleet Outlook 
• Fleet Utilization
• Freight Forecast

Lisa Luo, Senior Dry Bulk Freight Research Analyst

• Impact of trade wars on price trends and trade flows
• Reshaping China’s crop and protein demands

Daphne Tan, Associate Director of Strategic Development