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ADNOC raises October 2021-July 2022 export availability forecasts for Murban crude


ADNOC kept August-Sept 2021 figures unchanged

Forecast raised to reach highest level of 1.407 mil b/d in July 2022

Export forecast in previous report was unchanged between Sept 2021-June 2022

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. has raised the forecast of its flagship Murban crude available for export from October 2021 to July 2022, but kept the export volume between August and September unchanged from June.

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ADNOC will have 1.105 million b/d of Murban available for export in August, with volumes rising to 1.13 million b/d in September, unchanged from figures published in the previous month, it said in a July 27 report.

It raised its forecast for Murban crude available for export for the remaining months, starting with 1.175 million b/d in October 2021 and rising gradually to reach the highest level of 1.407 million b/d in July 2022, compared with figures in the June report.

Export availability in the June report showed volumes would stay at 1.13 million b/d between September 2021 and June 2022.

No explanation was given for the higher forecasts.

Murban is ADNOC's largest crude by volume, with a production capacity of about 2 million b/d of the company's total capacity of around 4 million b/d. It is produced from 2,000 onshore wells, and the national oil producer describes the grade as light and sweet.


ADNOC sets the official selling price for Murban crude using the monthly average of the Singapore marker price of Murban futures on the ICE Futures Abu Dhabi exchange, which go to delivery two months from the month of trade.

OSPs for ADNOC's Upper Zakum, Das and Umm Lulu grades are priced at a differential to the Murban OSP.

Murban is the second physically delivered futures contract to trade on a regional exchange after the Dubai Mercantile Exchange's Oman crude futures.

It is also a deliverable grade in the S&P Global Platts benchmark Dubai and Oman crude assessments.