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European Calendar 20 power contracts recover losses on EUA, fuel gains

London — European Calendar 20 power contracts recovered at least two weeks of losses as emission credits rose above Eur20/mt Wednesday, with some support also seen coming from gas and oil gains, traders said.

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"The correlation between carbon and gas, or power products is strong...carbon is strong and has crossed the 200-day moving average. [Plus] lower wind and potentially below seasonal norms [are forecast] in France next week, the Russian gas flow drop is bullish too, as is bullish coal. So the pick-up in the curve is fully justified," said Wayne Bryan, Senior European energy and commodity analyst from Energy consultancy Alfa Energy.

EU emission credits on ICE for the nearest December were seeing rising as high as Eur20.77/mt in the morning Wednesday, but remained firm above Eur20.60/mt in the afternoon.

"It is a bigger recovery than I expected, EUAs are trying to get back on track so we will see how it goes," a German power trader said.

The UK power Q2 2019 base was up 70 pence on the day with the contract trading at GBP47.55/MWh at around 11:30 London time, while its Summer 2019 base contract was at GBP48.05/MWh, up by the same amount.

"Oil is stronger; weather goes back to normal...we've had a run down so consolidation," a UK power trader said.

Another UK power trader said: "EUAs are back above the 200 days moving average, which the market managed to keep a lid on yesterday...This has pushed power prices [up] across the board. I believe, fundamentals will win the battle and these things will come lower."

The German Cal 20 rose as high as Eur46.75/MWh, up over Eur1 on the day, but eased later to Eur46.65/MWh, clawing back losses posted since February 11.

The French Calendar 2020 base was at Eur50/MWh at 11:30 in London, the highest seen in the last 20 days, data from EEX showed, and the Italian equivalent was heard trading at Eur59.60/MWh,recovering the past two weeks' declines.

Corresponding Spanish prices were a touch higher at a bid-offer Eur53.60-53.80/MWh after it settled on OMIP at Eur53.60/MWh Tuesday.

-- Mario Perez, mario.perez@spglobal.com

-- Shubhlakshmi Shukla, shubhlakshmi.shukla@spglobal.com

-- Mario Perez, mario.perez@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Jonathan Loades-Carter, newsdesk@spglobal.com