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Russia MY 2021-22 wheat exports fall 17% through Nov 24; prices hit record high

Highlights

Turkey, Egypt, Kazakhstan top buyers of Russian wheat

Russia raises wheat export tax to $80.8/mt for Dec. 1-7

Wheat export prices reach all-time high of $345.25/mt

The pace of Russia's wheat exports slowed for marketing year 2021-22 (July-June), as the world's biggest wheat exporter increased export tariffs on shipments of the food grain.

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The country's wheat exports fell 17% year on year to 18 million mt over July 1-Nov. 25, according to data released by the Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance Nov. 29.

Wheat exports for the year stood at 17.2 million mt through Nov. 18.

Turkey was the largest buyer of Russian wheat during the year, buying 3.7 million mt as of Nov. 25, followed by Egypt (2.7 million mt) and Kazakhstan (1.1 million mt).

S&P Global Platts Analytics has projected Russian MY 2021-22 wheat exports at 36.5 million mt.

Russia sold 38.5 million mt of wheat in MY 2020-21, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.

Wheat prices rise

Export prices of Russian wheat rose in the week of Nov. 26, after choppy trading for a few days.

S&P Global Platts assessed FOB Russia 12.5% protein wheat at $345.25/mt Nov. 26, up 50 cents from Nov. 25.

Concerns of tightening supply from Canada due to logistical constraints amid flooding had boosted prices, analysts said. Apart from Canada, unseasonal rainfall in Australia which is hitting the quality of its crop is also seen as a boost for Russian wheat prices.

Traders expect prices to remain firm over the next few months, as Russia will impose an export quota in February.

Russia raised its export taxes on wheat to $80.80/mt for the Dec. 1-7 week, up $2.5 from the previous week.

It introduced the floating rate in June, replacing the fixed rate mechanism of Eur50/mt ($58.78/mt). The duty is applied when the export price of wheat exceeds $200/mt and is calculated as 70% of the difference between the market price and that benchmark.

Harvest progress

The country's MY 2021-22 wheat harvest has almost concluded. It harvested 78.6 million mt wheat as of Nov. 26, nearly 11% below the 88.1 million mt produced during the same period a year ago, according to the agricultural ministry.

Russia's wheat output is expected to decline in MY 2021-22, due to adverse weather conditions, particularly in the Urals and Volga regions.

Platts Analytics has projected Russia's wheat crop at 77.6 million mt in MY 2021-22. Russia harvested 85.9 million mt of wheat in MY 2020-21.