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USDA cuts estimate for 2018-19 domestic soybean production by 3 million bushels

Chicago — US domestic soybean production for 2018-19 will decrease 3 million bushels to 4.69 billion, with a reduction in harvested area more than offsetting an increase in yield estimates, Department of Agriculture data showed Thursday.

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According to the agency's October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, the soybean yield forecast for the 2018-19 marketing year increased 0.3 bushel/acre to 53.1 bu/acre. Soybean ending stocks for 2018-19 are projected at 885 million bu, a 4.73% increase from the previous report.

The projected season-average farm price range for soybeans was left unchanged at $7.35/bu-$9.85/bu.

Soybean supplies for the 2018-19 crop were projected at a record 5.153 billion bu, up 40 million bu from the previous report. Soybean usage estimates for crushing and exports were left unchanged from September.

Soybean oil ending stocks for 2018-19 were estimated 50 million lb lower to 2.116 billion lb. This was caused by an increase in domestic usage of 100 million lb out pacing a 50 million lb increase in beginning stocks. Projected soybean oil usage for biodiesel production remained unchanged at 7.800 billion lb. The soybean oil average price range was forecast to remain unchanged at 28 cents/lb-32 cents/lb, according to Thursday's report.

World soybean production increased 0.16 million mt, to a record 369.48 million mt, based on increased output by Canada that offset lower projections for India, the US and Mexico, according to the report. -- Luke Lundgren, luke.lundgren@spglobal.com

-- Edited by Richard Rubin, newsdesk@spglobal.com